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Francesco Pesole

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  • Analysis & Comment

Francesco Pesole's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Francesco Pesole's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 7

It is now a very consensus view that the Fed will push back against rate cut expectations. We expect the Dot Plots will show only 50bp of cuts in 2024. Still, markets may feel less comfortable about...
The dollar has shown resilience after disappointing JOLTS job openings data yesterday, leaving EUR/USD under pressure as the euro’s idiosyncratic negatives fuel bearish momentum. Today, the Bank...
Markets have scaled back some dovish bets on the Fed at the start of this week, perhaps starting to position more cautiously ahead of a Fed pushback and key data releases. Today, JOLTS and ISM...
The further decline in USD rates means that it will now be up to activity data to trigger a recovery in the dollar. We have a couple of days packed with important US releases into the weekend, as well...
EUR/USD is eyeing the key 1.10 level, but we suspect that any breaks above that level will prove unsustainable as the rates picture remains broadly supportive for the dollar until the US growth...
PMIs came in stronger than expected in the eurozone and the UK yesterday and will be released in the US today. Despite the notion that eurozone growth pessimism may have peaked, rate differentials...
The dollar plummeted yesterday after a softer-than-expected US CPI reading. But we still think a turn in activity data - more than the disinflation story - is needed to take the dollar sustainably...
The dollar risks another correction event today as inflation may slow a bit more than expected, even though core stickiness should prevent a major repricing of rate expectations. EUR/USD might also...
The data calendar remains quiet across developed markets, but we are hearing more from central bankers. Fed speakers have delivered hawkish comments, emphasizing the fight against inflation and...
Markets are torn. Will the ECB hike this week or not? We think it will, but we look at how different scenarios can impact rates and FX. Even in our base case, we suspect that convincing markets that...