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Francesco Pesole

  • Analysis & Comment

Francesco Pesole's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Francesco Pesole's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 6

The further decline in USD rates means that it will now be up to activity data to trigger a recovery in the dollar. We have a couple of days packed with important US releases into the weekend, as well...
EUR/USD is eyeing the key 1.10 level, but we suspect that any breaks above that level will prove unsustainable as the rates picture remains broadly supportive for the dollar until the US growth...
PMIs came in stronger than expected in the eurozone and the UK yesterday and will be released in the US today. Despite the notion that eurozone growth pessimism may have peaked, rate differentials...
The dollar plummeted yesterday after a softer-than-expected US CPI reading. But we still think a turn in activity data - more than the disinflation story - is needed to take the dollar sustainably...
The dollar risks another correction event today as inflation may slow a bit more than expected, even though core stickiness should prevent a major repricing of rate expectations. EUR/USD might also...
The data calendar remains quiet across developed markets, but we are hearing more from central bankers. Fed speakers have delivered hawkish comments, emphasizing the fight against inflation and...
Markets are torn. Will the ECB hike this week or not? We think it will, but we look at how different scenarios can impact rates and FX. Even in our base case, we suspect that convincing markets that...
The ECB hawks have stepped in to revive depressed rate expectations, but markets are opting for data dependency, and EUR/USD is set to face two key risk events with eurozone inflation figures before...
While the People's Bank of China continues its battle to keep the USD/CNY under 7.30, markets will take a close look at PMIs today. The main focus will be on the eurozone – Germany in particular...
Another day brings another set of data to support further Fed tightening. That should be the main story with the release of US personal income data and the core PCE deflator for May. Barring a data...