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Francesco Pesole

  • Analysis & Comment

Francesco Pesole's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Francesco Pesole's articles, including current analysis & comment - Page 4

Growth figures for 3Q are published in the US and eurozone today. German CPI is also expected to have re-accelerated, but the impact on the euro may be limited. In the UK, Chancellor Reeves announces...
The proximity to the US election can favour more deleveraging in FX, raising risks that less liquid currencies will face the pressure reserved for Trump-risk proxies. The US macro calendar picks up...
As we had expected, the BoJ raised its policy rate to 0.25% and announced the JGB purchases would be halved by 1Q26. The growth outlook was trimmed modestly for FY24 while the inflation outlook...
The RBNZ changed its tone only moderately, keeping the threat of another hike on. However, NZD fell and AUD also declined after lower-than-expected CPI. We think Australia and New Zealand have...
We expect an above-consensus 0.4% core PCE read on Thursday, which should support the dollar this week. Eurozone inflation numbers will also be in focus. We expect a decline in the core rate below...
The ingredients for more rangebound trading are all there, especially given an uninspiring US data calendar and no impact of Chinese news. However, the ECB’s negotiated wage growth indicator is...
CPI reports in the US and the UK will be in focus this week. We see a greater risk for a lower-than-expected number in the US even though our estimates match consensus, while UK services inflation and...
The dollar strengthened across the board yesterday with no clear catalyst. We suspect that in an environment that keeps pricing large Fed cuts, USD rallies aren’t very sustainable. We’ll...
The dollar is softer and pro-cyclical currencies are following the yuan higher after news that China is preparing a CNY 2tn rescue package for the stock market. The BoJ revised inflation expectations...
Investors have cemented Fed easing expectations despite some hotter-than-expected US data. We suspect a market reluctant to price out rate cuts will need strong words from the Fed – perhaps...