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Francesco Pesole

ING Think
  • Analysis & Comment

Francesco Pesole's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Francesco Pesole's articles, including current analysis & comment.

Markets have continued to unwind US Dollar longs as US Treasuries had another strong session, and a delay in tariff announcements is fuelling some tentative optimism. That said, we could start to see...
The US dollar suffered a positioning squeeze yesterday as Trump fell short of announcing universal tariffs on day one. However, USD/CAD and USD/MXN are facing more downside risks as the new president...
Markets may tread carefully today ahead of Monday’s inauguration of President Trump. There are lingering concerns about the “day one” measures, some of which are priced in, which could generate some...
The US PPI surprised on the soft side, but that does not mean today’s CPI will send similar upbeat signals. We expect a 0.3% MoM core print, which can offer a new round of support to the dollar. In...
The US releases PPI figures for January today, where the core measure is expected to accelerate at an unwelcoming 0.3% MoM. That should cast more doubts about further Fed easing and give the dollar...
The US dollar is receiving some fresh support from data, particularly from the spike in the ISM services prices paid sub-index in December. Should we see a re-focus of the Fed on inflation concerns,...
The US dollar could lose some momentum this week as a return of normal market conditions allows for some reconciliation with slightly lower rates. However, the proximity to Trump’s inauguration and...
The first trading day of the year brought fresh pressure on European currencies. There is now a considerable risk premium being built into EUR/USD, and we suspect that both protectionism and the...
The Fed delivered a hawkish cut on Wednesday, signalling only 50bp of easing in 2025 and shifting to a more patient tone on easing. That has led to another US dollar rally, which we see extending...
We expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a consensus 25bp cut on Wednesday, but also to scale back on guidance for rate cuts next year. We think this will allow the US dollar to stay firm into...