USDINR Remains on an Edge Amid Covid Outbreak

  • Forex Analysis

The month of April, saw USDINR spot see-saw between 73.20-75.30 but the spot managed to end the month near 74 zones, and, May doesn't look much better. The spot opened the month on a higher note as investors continued to monitor the Covid situation in India. India still continues to battle a deadly second wave of infections, over the weekend, more than 400,000 daily new cases were registered for the first time.

Also, dollar index remained off a two-month low, and the risk of rising further on the back of upbeat upcoming data is keeping investors on their toes. The US Nonfarm payrolls are due on Friday, and the economy is expected to add in excess of a million jobs in April, building on a 916,000 increase in payrolls in March. Also, the US ISM manufacturing PMI which is due tonight is expected to be robust and the service sector is estimated to expand at the fastest pace. The seasonal dynamics for the month of May can also buoy the safe-haven demand for the dollar. So with this in mind, we may expect the USDINR spot to remain afloat.

However, incoming sessions a slew of IPOs approximately worth Rs 179 billion are expected to hit India's primary market, which includes companies like Zomato, KIMS Hospitals, Dodla Dairy, Aadhar Housing Finance, Macrotech Developers, Sona BLW Precision Forgings. The rupee traders may brace for FII related inflows from these IPOs, although RBI will likely prevent the USDINR spot from depreciating sharply.

Technically, the spot price is hovering around the psychological level of 74. For the week, the fx traders would keep focusing on US economic data and Fed Powell's speech due later today and the USDINR spot will continue swinging in between 73.50-74.50. Later today, Powell will reiterate the dovish monetary policy stance but the markets will be looking for any break from the script. As seen in the USDINR spot chart, the pair started the week at 74.26 compared to the previous close of 74.06. The immediate support zone is located at 74.15-74.0 and consistent trading below 74.0 only we can see a dip towards 73.80-73.55.


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