"In the face of rising duties and changing demands, India’s edible oil market must strike a balance between supporting farmers and ensuring affordability for consumers."
Introduction
India's edible oil market has undergone significant changes following a recent increase in import duties on various oils, aimed at protecting local farmers and stabilizing domestic markets. This report explores the implications of this duty hike, industry trends, and the reactions from global suppliers, offering insights into the evolving landscape of India’s edible oil sector.
Import Duty Hike and Its Rationale
In September 2024, the Indian government raised import duties on crude soybean, palm, and sunflower oils from 0% to 20%, resulting in an effective duty rate of 27.5% on crude oils. The duty on refined oils was increased from 12.5% to 32.5%, leading to an effective rate of 35.75%. This strategic move was intended to stabilize domestic oilseed prices, which had dropped below the Minimum Support Price (MSP), thereby protecting farmers’ incomes amid unrest due to low price realizations.
Projected Growth Despite Duty Hike
Despite these increases, India's demand for edible oils is projected to rise by 2-3% in the marketing year 2024-25. As the country approaches its peak festival season starting November 1, consumption is expected to surge. India, the world's largest importer of edible oils, meets 70% of its demand through imports, primarily sourcing palm oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, while soybean and sunflower oils are imported from Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine. Palm oil imports for the upcoming year are anticipated to be between 9-10 million metric tons, regaining market share lost to sunflower oil.
Global Suppliers and Trade Dynamics
Global suppliers, particularly those from Indonesia and Malaysia, are adjusting their strategies in response to India's duty hike. Indonesia, which exported 28.06 lakh tonnes of crude palm oil to India in the first ten months of the oil year, is contemplating cuts to its export duty to support local farmers amidst declining demand. This adjustment comes as global palm oil production is forecasted to decrease slightly, contributing to a complex international trade environment.
Impact on FMCG Companies and Prices
The duty hike is expected to lead to price increases for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) such as soaps, snacks, and cosmetics, which rely heavily on edible oils. Companies like Hindustan Unilever (NS:HLL) and Britannia (NS:BRIT) may raise prices by 1.6% to 2.5% to maintain their profit margins. This increase in production costs may also extend to edible oil producers, who could pass on a 20% price hike to consumers.
Government Measures to Control Prices
To mitigate rising prices during the festive season, the Indian government has instructed edible oil associations to maintain maximum retail prices until stocks imported at lower duties are exhausted. With about 3 million metric tonnes of edible oils still available at lower duty rates, this measure aims to balance consumer affordability with the needs of domestic farmers.
The Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) has urged the government to raise the duty differential between crude and refined edible oils, proposing an increase from 7.5% to 15% to support domestic refiners and value addition in India. They have also raised concerns about potential influxes of refined oils from SAARC countries like Nepal and Bangladesh, which enjoy nil or concessional duties under existing trade agreements, suggesting a quota system to limit imports.
Moreover, the Ministry of Food has sought explanations from edible oil companies regarding retail price increases, emphasizing that available stocks should keep prices stable for another 45-50 days. The government's recent customs duty hikes were aimed at supporting domestic oilseed farmers, with expectations that the new soybean and groundnut harvests arriving in October would further mitigate any price hikes.
Economic Impact of the Duty Hike
Economists predict that the duty hike will not cause significant inflationary pressure, thanks to declining global prices and anticipated increases in domestic oilseed production. The upcoming soybean and groundnut harvests are expected to further cushion the inflationary impact of the duty hike, reflecting the government's commitment to balancing consumer interests with agricultural sustainability.
Global Reaction
Indonesia, a leading exporter of palm oil, plans to reduce its export duty on palm oil next month to support farmers facing declining demand. This decision comes in the wake of India's recent increase in customs duties on crude soybean oil, crude palm oil, and crude sunflower oil, which now stand at 27.5% and on refined oils at 35.75%. Indonesian palm oil production is projected to dip slightly to 53 million tonnes this year from 54.8 million tonnes last year, with first-half output down to 26.2 million tonnes compared to 27.3 million tonnes in the previous year. Exports have also fallen to 15.1 million tonnes in the first half, primarily due to reduced demand from China and India. The Indonesian government is focusing on sustainability initiatives by ramping up biodiesel blending, expecting to increase biodiesel production from 10.64 million tonnes last year to 11.5 million tonnes this year. Despite the customs duty hike in India, officials believe the impact on imports will be minimal, given India's reliance on these imports.
Conclusion
The recent increase in import duties on edible oils by the Indian government represents a strategic effort to support domestic farmers and stabilize local markets amid rising production costs and fluctuating global demand. While this policy aims to enhance the income of local oilseed producers, it has also prompted concerns about potential price increases for consumers and fast-moving consumer goods. Despite these challenges, India's demand for edible oils is projected to grow in the coming marketing year, driven by seasonal consumption patterns and population growth. On the global front, Indonesia's planned reduction in export duties is expected to alleviate some pressure on Indian importers, ensuring a continued supply of palm oil amidst changing market dynamics. To navigate this complex landscape, collaboration between governments, farmers, and industry stakeholders will be crucial in balancing consumer affordability with the sustainability of domestic agriculture. As India seeks to enhance self-sufficiency in edible oil production, ongoing monitoring of import trends and domestic supply will be vital in shaping the future of the country's edible oil market.