Wipro (NS:WIPR): Wipro’s (WPRO IN) margin goalpost timelines have moved ahead with investments to ‘maintain’ the current growth trajectory. Q1 performance was a slightly lower revenue (although consistent at the mid-point of the guided band) and delivered lower margins. Key positives include (1) strong large deal bookings with 18 large deals of TCV USD 1.1bn (vs. USD 2.3bn in FY22) aiding growth visibility with overall TCV/ACV growth of 32% and 18% YoY; (2) continuity of organic growth consistency with Q2 guidance of 3-5% QoQ CC (organic 1.8-3.8%), supported by recent wins (Petrobras, Credit Agricole (EPA:CAGR), Scania) and commentary of the all-time high deal pipeline as well as recent outperformance on large account trend; (3) stronger growth in headcount relative to peers with fresher hiring momentum (10k in Q1FY23 and 30k targeted in FY23E); and (4) moderation in LTM attrition (vs. expansion in peers) as well as resilience in sub-contracting relative to peers. The 200bps sequential margin drop was accentuated by ~50-bps impact from higher travel expense and ~30bps impact from higher facility expense; key levers to offset the wage increase impact in Q2-Q3 include utilization and sub-contracting (~1pp lever). We lower the margin estimates to factor in near-term margin headwinds and a protracted recovery which translates to FY23E earnings underperformance and a sharp swing in FY24E. Maintain ADD, with a TP of INR 475, valuing WPRO at 19x FY24E EPS.
IndusInd Bank (NS:INBK): IndusInd Bank (IIB) reported a significant beat on estimates, benefitting from higher loan growth (+18% YoY) and lower-than-expected credit costs (2.2% annualized). However, gross slippages continued to remain elevated at ~4%, emerging from the consumer financing portfolio, suggesting sustained retail portfolio instability. Despite being a seasonally weak quarter, disbursements were strong for vehicle and MFI portfolios, indicating improved demand in the underlying segments. We tweak our FY23E/FY24E estimates, especially to factor in better loan growth; maintain REDUCE with a revised TP of INR953 (1.3x Mar-24 AVBPS).
AU Small Finance Bank (NS:AUFI): AUBANK’s earnings were in line with estimates, led by stronger asset yields, offset by sustained elevated operating expenses. Asset quality was stable with GNPA/credit costs at 2/0.4% (annualized), while slippages were marginally higher at 2.5% with delinquencies from the restructured pool (now at 2.1% of loan book). Business momentum remained healthy, driving AUM growth of +37% YoY, with traction in the ‘wheels’ segment (+44% YoY). AUBANK continued to step up investments in its franchise-building blocks and new asset classes, which are likely to drag medium-term profitability metrics (opex to assets at ~4% and cost to income ratio at ~60%). We adjust our FY23E/FY24E estimates downwards by 5/3% to factor in higher opex and maintain REDUCE with a revised TP of INR600 (3.8x Mar’24 ABVPS).
Wipro
Shifting margin goalpost
Wipro’s (WPRO IN) margin goalpost timelines have moved ahead with investments to ‘maintain’ the current growth trajectory. Q1 performance was a slightly lower revenue (although consistent at the mid-point of the guided band) and delivered lower margins. Key positives include (1) strong large deal bookings with 18 large deals of TCV USD 1.1bn (vs. USD 2.3bn in FY22) aiding growth visibility with overall TCV/ACV growth of 32% and 18% YoY; (2) continuity of organic growth consistency with Q2 guidance of 3-5% QoQ CC (organic 1.8-3.8%), supported by recent wins (Petrobras, Credit Agricole, Scania) and commentary of the all-time high deal pipeline as well as recent outperformance on large account trend; (3) stronger growth in headcount relative to peers with fresher hiring momentum (10k in Q1FY23 and 30k targeted in FY23E); and (4) moderation in LTM attrition (vs. expansion in peers) as well as resilience in sub-contracting relative to peers. The 200bps sequential margin drop was accentuated by ~50-bps impact from higher travel expense and ~30bps impact from higher facility expense; key levers to offset the wage increase impact in Q2-Q3 include utilization and sub-contracting (~1pp lever). We lower the margin estimates to factor in near-term margin headwinds and a protracted recovery which translates to FY23E earnings underperformance and a sharp swing in FY24E. Maintain ADD, with a TP of INR 475, valuing WPRO at 19x FY24E EPS.
Q1FY23 Highlights: (1) WPRO posted revenue of USD 2,736mn, +2.1% QoQ CC and 17.2% YoY CC (marginally lower than our estimate of USD 2,746mn), supported by growth in consulting and engineering services. (2) Sequential growth performance was led by a consumer (+5% QoQ CC) & BFSI verticals (+2.4% QoQ CC), which grew above the company average, while manufacturing declined sequentially. (3) Digital engineering and application grew faster (+3.5% QoQ) than iCORE (flat QoQ CC). (4) WPRO added 15,446 employees and onboarded > 10k fresher in Q1 and has targeted acceleration of fresher addition in FY23 as compared to 19k fresher adds in FY22. The company will roll out promotions effective from Jul’22 and wage hikes effective from Sep’22. (5) Attrition declined by 50bps QoQ at 23.3%. (6) WPRO closed 18 large deals, resulting in a TCV of USD 1.1bn in Q1FY23, indicating no slowdown in consulting business and a strong order intake in Capco.
Outlook: We have factored in +10.0/+10.1% USD revenue growth and EBITM of 15.4/16.3% for FY23/24E respectively, resulting in an EPS CAGR of 6.4% over FY22-24E.
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