Ambuja Cement (NS:ABUJ): We maintain ADD with an unchanged TP of INR 620/share (16.5x its consolidated FY26E EBITDA). During Q4FY24, consolidated volumes rose 17% YoY owing to the low base and ramp-up of recently acquired Sanghi plants. Weak pricing across markets drove down NSR by INR 394/MT QoQ (-7%). Opex too fell INR 190/MT on op-lev gains and lower input/freight costs. Thus, consolidated unitary EBITDA declined INR 203/MT QoQ to INR 1,026/MT (up INR 150/MT YoY). Sanghi ramp-up and upcoming expansions should bolster volume growth from FY25 onwards. We estimate a 13.5% CAGR for FY24-26E vs 7% in FY24. We also estimate unit EBITDA to expand by INR 200/MT in FY26 (over FY24) to ~INR 1,300, benefiting from various cost reduction exercises underway. The company reiterated its organic expansions are on track to expand the group cement capacity to 140mn MT by FY28.
Havells India (NS:HVEL): Havells’ Q4 revenue aligned with our estimate while it positively surprised operationally with EBITDAM expanding by 80bps to 11.7% (HSIE: 9.8%). While the B2B portfolio continues to sustain its momentum, the B2C portfolio witnessed early signs of a revival led by a positive start to the summer season and benefits from the real estate uptick. Lloyd reported a positive EBIT margin (+2.8% vs -1.8% YoY), led by cost savings and business efficiency measures. Lloyd is progressing well on its journey of growth and profitability and will continue to look to grow faster than the industry. Through its multi-product portfolio serving a diverse consumer base, we believe Havells remains well placed to capitalise from the current uptick seen in private/government capex and real-estate tailwind, given (1) it has a diverse product portfolio covering 70%+ of household electric sockets, (2) it is among the top 3 players in most product categories, (3) its Lloyd portfolio is gaining traction, and (4) it has an innovation focus and its GTM expansion to become more omnipresent. We raise our FY25/26 EPS by 4/3% to reflect Q4 performance and value the stock at 50x Mar26 EPS to arrive at a target price of INR 1,625. Maintain ADD.
Dabur (NS:DABU): Dabur’s Q4FY24 results were above estimates, however, sales growth was lopsided, with the majority of the beat coming from the Oral care segment and rural driven. Rural grew (8%) at almost 2x of urban areas on the back of company-specific initiatives such as expanding the distribution network, launching affordable price point packs, and increasing acceptance of Ayurveda. The oral care segment grew 22% YoY due to market share gains, higher per capita income in the South (Dabur stronghold) and enhanced distribution reach. The healthcare range (30% of domestic sales) disappointed due to the delayed winter season (Chyawanprash) and supply chain-related issues (honey). Foods (22% of sales) remained flat due to high base impact and delayed arrival of the summer season. Similarly, currency devaluation impacted otherwise decent growth in international business (12% CC growth). Dabur remains optimistic about high single-volume growth with double-digit revenue growth, led by (1) focus on power brands, (2) distribution expansion drive, and (3) premiumisation. Management guided for 50bps EBITDA margin improvement to 20% in FY25. We remain sceptical about management guidance (have pencilled only 9% revenue growth in FY25), given their volatile track record (6/8/7% revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGRs over the past decade). It will require the support of macro tailwinds such as favourable weather conditions (given the high seasonal portfolio) and normal monsoon to drive a sustained momentum in rural to deliver DD revenue growth. We maintain ADD with a TP of INR 595 (45x FY26 EPS).
ACC (NS:ACC): We maintain BUY on ACC, with an unchanged TP of INR 2,845/share (11x its Mar-26E consolidated EBITDA). During Q4FY24, ACC’s volume rose 22% YoY supported by a low base of last year and marginal contribution from Sanghi. However, NSR slumped INR 290/MT QoQ on weak pricing across markets. Modest op-lev gains of INR 67/MT QoQ cushioned the margin decline, as it fell INR 232/MT QoQ to INR 784/MT. During FY25, ACC will be adding 40MW of WHRS and will also be ramping up renewal power usage leading to cost reductions. Currently, 4mn MT grinding expansions are lined up for Q1FY26 and more expansion announcements are expected in the coming months.
Nuvoco Vistas (NS:NUVO) Corporation: We maintain a BUY rating for Nuvoco Vistas, with a revised TP of INR 470/share (9x its consolidated Mar-26E EBITDA). In Q4FY24, Nuvoco’s volume was muted (grew 2% YoY). A sharp fall in pricing in the east pulled down NSR by 8% QoQ. However, major op-lev gains cushioned the impact. Thus, unit EBITDA declined from INR 125/MT QoQ to INR 866/MT. Importantly, Nuvoco also tightened its working capital, freeing up cash. Thus, net debt/ EBITDA cooled off to 2.7x (its lowest in the past eight years). It has also put expansion projects on hold, as the focus remains on balance sheet repair, which is a good strategy, in our view.
Orient Cement (NS:ORCE): We maintain our REDUCE rating on Orient Cement with a revised TP of INR 205/share (7.5x Mar-26E EBITDA). In Q4FY24, cement volume rose 0.5% YoY owing to a sharp decline in Telangana and competitive pressure in eastern Maharashtra. NSR fell 5% QoQ on weak pricing across markets. However, the company registered cost reduction QoQ (unitary input and fixed costs), which more than offset the NSR fall. Thus, unit EBITDA increased INR 30/MT QoQ to INR 859/MT (up INR 47/MT YoY). Management expects 8% YoY volume growth in FY25. Management remains hopeful to commission brownfield (2/3mn MT clinker/cement) Chittapur expansion and greenfield (2mn MT) SGU in MP by FY26 end.
Greenpanel Industries (NS:GREP): In Q4FY24, Greenpanel’s revenue/EBITDA/APAT fell 10/32/57% YoY. MDF sales volume declined 7% YoY (domestic/export +23/-74% YoY), as Greenpanel cut its thin-margin exports. Domestic MDF NSR declined 12% QoQ, owing to higher incentives to dealers and a change in product mix. So, the MDF margin contracted 320bps QoQ to 16.4%. Ply revenue declined sharply 35/21% YoY/QoQ, owing to weak volume and lower NSR. Its MDF capacity expansion by 35% (231K CBM) is likely to be commissioned by Q3FY25 end. At least for the next few quarters, MDF prospects remain challenging owing to supply pressure (domestic capacity addition and imports) and soaring timber prices. As margin pain in MDF is expected to continue throughout FY25, and revival in the ply segment is delayed, we downgrade Greenpanel to ADD from BUY earlier with lower TP of INR 335/share (20x Mar-26E EPS).
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