Nifty Hit by India Vix, Unwell & Ends at 16125

  • Stock Market Analysis
  • Editors Pick

NIFTY O / H / L / C

16225.55/ 16262.80/ 16078.60/ 16125.15 [-89.55/-0.55%]

BANK NIFTY O / H / L / C

34223.20/ 34586.45/ 34115.80/ 34290.15 [+42.55/+0.12%]

India Vix 25.64/+9.57%

FII DII Data -445 Crores

SGX Nifty @ 1820h +20

TOP 5 CONTRIBUTORS OF NIFTY

Lifters 39

Draggers 57

Net -18

TOP 3 CONTRIBUTORS OF BANK NIFTY

Lifters 94

Draggers 47

Net +47

CHART BASED DETAILS & ANALYSIS IS GIVEN IN THIS VIDEO:
https://youtu.be/z09anWMvN4o

POSITIVES

Bank Nifty ended in the green.

The HDFC (NS: HDFC ) twins held on to the green region.

Reliance (NS: RELI ) also ended in the green.

NEGATIVE

India Vix at 25.64 which is up almost 10%.

The DIIs fell short by 445 Crores in pff-setting the selling from the FIIs.

Nifty ended at 16125, much lower and closer to the 16000 mark.

The IT pack in Nifty is under tremendous pressure.

SUPPORTS & RESISTANCE LEVELS

Nifty – Support 15700-15900 Resistance 16300-400

Bank Nifty - Support 33000-33500 Resistance 34500-800

TRADING INSIGHTS & OBSERVATIONS

  1. It has been so happening on a regular basis that when our markets open the session, the global cues tend to be weak, and then our markets like an obedient disciples, simply follow the cues left behind by the global markets.
  2. However, our markets opened somewhat flat and then after hitting the opening low in the first 5 minutes, showed strength to move up and hit the resistance in the form of the close of 20-5 at 16266 and then met with the selling pressure.
  3. Nifty soon fell 60+ points in 5 minutes and broke the opening low and soon after 1000h, registered the morning session low at 16117. Thanks to the intraday support level around that area, Nifty managed to find support and started turning around.
  4. The ride on the way up was not smooth as it had to face resistance on a few occasions around the close of 23-5, 16214. However, after some choppy movements, it finally managed to retest the opening high and it appeared that Nifty may attempt to cross 16300.
  5. However, at the stroke of 1305h, when a new 5-minute candle was created, it had to its credit the distinction of being the candle that led to the fall of Nifty by 90+ points and this broke the back of the supports that Nifty had been gaining so far.
  6. And then in the time till the end of the session, the Nifty fell further and a new low for the day at 16078 which was more than 100 points lower than that of 23-5.
  7. In contrast, Bank Nifty made a low which was almost identical - low for 23-5 WAS 34117, and Tuesday’s low was 34115. Bank Nifty has been finding support around this area during the last several days which is a good sign.
  8. Whereas Bank Nifty ended the day in the green, Nifty ended much lower - by 89 points at 16125. This is an unusual level for Nifty as so far it has either ended around the opening price, or one of the earlier resistances.
  9. The reason for the downfall in Nifty in particular was an account of the IT twins, Axis Bank (NS: AXBK ), ICICI Bank (NS: ICBK ), Divi's Laboratories Ltd (NS: DIVI ), Tech Mahindra Ltd (NS: TEML ), Hindalco (NS: HALC ), and Hindustan Unilever Ltd (NS: HLL ). The HDFC twins were the ones that lent support to the indices and Reliance did a big favor by ending the day in the green and above 2600.
  10. However, the main issue that would hover over the markets during the week is the sharp spike in India Vix which ended way above 25 and at one stage was up more than 10% during the day. This is not a good sign especially when the expiry is just 2 sessions away.
  11. The movements in Nifty were very choppy and at times Nifty spend quite some time within a narrow range and then either fell or went up.
  12. I feel that there is something that was happening during the day in Nifty that I was unable to figure out - the Nifty Futures which has been trading at a discount to the spot saw the discount varying frequently sometimes widening and sometimes narrowing the gap.
  13. We will have to wait and experience what happens on the penultimate day of the monthly expiry. SGX Nifty, for now, is flat.

Note: Posted purely for informational & educational purposes only.

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