Nifty Futures Kissed 16.5k! Nifty, Bank Nifty, Top Stocks Analysis

  • Stock Market Analysis
Nifty 50 EOD ANALYSIS 05-07-21
 
IN SUMMARY 
  • Open: 15793.4
  • High: 15845.95
  • Low: 15762.05
  • Close: 15834.35  [ +112.15  / +0.71%]
  • Trading Range Low to High: 83 points
  • Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 41.5 points
  • India VIX : 12.07 / -0.17%
  • FII DII activities - Not yet updated till the release of the article [but likely to be positive]

NOTE --

This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. 

WHY DO I USE CHARTS?

It is said that a picture conveys 1000 words and I add, to those who can read the script, and to some others this may not make sense which is fine. 

NIFTY 50 EOD 05-07-21  DAILY CHART -




NIFTY 15 Minute Chart for 23-6-21 to 05-07-21




CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS --

  • After a good gap-up opening, the index maintained a steady rise and then consolidated amidst some choppiness.
  • 15800 was tough to cross and hold on and then came to the fight for the resistance zone of 15835-50 to be cleared. 
  • It was only during the last half an hour that it could cross the line but failed to cross 15850.
  • The close is just below 15835 but is a good 112 points away from the close on 02-07. So now, 15750-800 are the support areas. 
  • The good thing is that the close is just below the day’s high.
  • However, the strong gap up has left behind a gap which would attract bears as and when there is some element of profit booking.

TOP 3 GAINERS

  • Hindalco Industries Ltd. (NS: HALC ) - While I was analyzing the weekly charts over the weekend, this scrip was prominent as I liked the price base that it had created. And it is no wonder that it is the top gainer. With this move, it has closed above the 50 DMA line and is good to go up as long as the follow-through on 06-07 is maintained.
  • ONGC (NS: ONGC ) - From a mini base of support above 50 DMA, it has bounced off, however, the price action indicates that it may require some push to go up further. 
  • State Bank Of India (NS: SBI ) - After a gap of 3 weeks plus, it has managed to close above the cluster of resistance around 420-430. RSI is 60+ so it appears bullish but it still has some more resistances to clear before it can sail higher without any issues. 

TOP 3 LOSERS

  • HDFC (NS: HDFC ) Life Insurance Company Ltd (NS: HDFL ) - It was unable to cross the highs of the earlier sessions and seems to have fallen to find its way to the lower support levels. However, there is a CIP on which it is resting now so it may bounce from here if some buying interest comes in. 
  • Tech Mahindra Ltd (NS: TEML ) -The scrip had been making lower highs and lower lows and now breached 13 DMA. So there is some kind of weakness that is bugging it. Maybe it is pricing in not-so-good Q1 results. Only time will tell the story.
  • Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd (NS: REDY ) [REDY] - It has not fallen significantly but the overall market sentiment was positive so even a normal dip has made it to feature here. It is still above the low of 02-07 so no alarm bells yet. 

POSITIVES

  • A close above 15800 and very close to the day’s high.
  • Key constituents of Nifty and Banknifty have performed well.
  • Banknifty managed to close above 35200.
  • RELIANCE, HDFC twins, ICICI Bank (NS: ICBK ), SBI (NS: SBI ), and INFOSYS have supported the indices and look good.

NEGATIVES

  • The first result due to this from the heavyweights is from TCS (NS: TCS ) and it ended in the red which could be the result of numbers being priced in. Any further dip may also make its peers nervous. 
  • Though HDFC twins have done well, both are below their psycho levels so some resistance is likely to be faced tomorrow.
  • With VIX falling slightly, the trading range could become narrower limiting the chance of Nifty being able to cross 15900 on 06-07.

TRADING RANGE FOR THE WEEK

  • The support line now moves up - 15750-800. Nifty is at resistance so a decisive close above 15850 would move the support up further. 
  • For Banknifty, the support zone moves up to 34800-35000 and the resistance is 35200-500. It has closed at the resistance like Nifty so anything is possible. 

If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. 

INSIGHT --

On hourly charts, both the indices look good with RSI above 60. As long as it remains over 60, bulls may be able to hold on to any selling pressure that may be experienced around resistance areas. 

Drop an image here or Supported formats: *.jpg, *.png, *.gif up to 5mb

Error: File type not supported

Drop an image here or

100
  • Electron Volt @Electron Volt
    This bullishness yesterday was the so called "X" wave of a double zigzag correction... so this has to fall severely today till 15400 or slightly down till 15380.
    Like 3
  • Narpat Panwar @Narpat Panwar
    15740 tuch bounce back
    Like 0
  • Dev Dutt @Dev Dutt
    Opec+ news is going to keep nifty low, however i am no expert, what say you Mr. umesh
    Like 1
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      I don't know. All that I know is in the article ☺️
      Like 0
    • Drop an image here or Supported formats: *.jpg, *.png, *.gif up to 5mb

      Error: File type not supported

      Drop an image here or

      100
  • Risu Sahu @Risu Sahu
    i think tommorrow nifty will touuch 15900 tomorrow because it close near the highs of today.. there was no negative sentiment today..may tomorrow nifty will open flat but if it sustain near 15830-15850 for 20-30 minutes then it will definitely go to 15900 tomorrow,...but if will go below 15800 then it will definately touch 15750 tomorrow...may be i will wrong sir...but its my prediction....
    Like 1
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      Good reading. Keep analysing this way and compare your reading with the reality.
      Like 0
    • Drop an image here or Supported formats: *.jpg, *.png, *.gif up to 5mb

      Error: File type not supported

      Drop an image here or

      100
  • Shashannk Kaul @Shashannk Kaul
    Very nicely articulated
    Like 0
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      Thank you
      Like 0
    • Drop an image here or Supported formats: *.jpg, *.png, *.gif up to 5mb

      Error: File type not supported

      Drop an image here or

      100

Related Articles