Upon analyzing the moves of the Nifty 50 index since I wrote my last analysis on Mar. 24, 2025, I found that the index started to move upward after finding significant support at 100 DMA at 22,203 amid growing uncertainty on trade tariff concerns and found stiff resistance at 50 DMA at $23.874 despite surging weakness.
Undoubtedly, the persisting weakness in the US dollar remained supportive of the regeneration of some bouncing moves after hitting a low at 21,742 on Apr. 7, 2025, as the persisting weakness once again found some support with the surging strength of the Indian Rupee.
I anticipate that the Nifty 50 index is still at a pivotal point before the advent of a fresh selling spree soon after the US dollar regains its strength after the Fed’s meeting on May 6 – 7, 2025 as the Federal Reserve could take necessary steps to save the persisting weakness in dollar due to current Trump’s policy on reciprocal tariffs.
On the fundamental front formation of some bearish formations in different time charts could extend bearish pressure, despite some gap-ups seen in the Nifty 50 index during the last few trading sessions as the Nifty 50 is facing stiff resistance at 100 DMA.
Undoubtedly, wobbly moves are likely to be there before the next breakdown or breakout during the second half of April as the impact of tariff trade on the Indian economy is still to be mapped.
Technical Levels to Watch
In the daily chart, Nifty 50 has found a stiff resistance at 100 DMA at 23,390, despite the appearance of two gaps since last Friday.
The formation of a bearish crossover with a downward move by 9 DMA below the 20 DMA could trigger a selling spree if the Nifty does not find a breakout above the significant resistance at 100 DMA this week.
Undoubtedly, in case of a downward move, the first significant support will be at 50 DMA at 22,954 but a breakdown below this could generate a fresh selling spree.
Inversely, if the Nifty finds a sustainable move above the 100 DMA could push the Nifty to test the next significant support at 200 DMA at 24,054.
In the weekly chart, the Nifty 50 index is facing stiff resistance at 20 DMA at 23.318 since the formation of the double bearish crossovers by the 9 DMA and 20 DMA have moved below the 50 DMA.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in Nifty 50 at their own risk as this analysis is only based on the observations.