Nifty Ends at 15,692, Lowest Close in the Last 11 Months, What Next?

  • Stock Market Analysis
  • Editors Pick

NIFTY O / H / L / C

15729.25/ 15783.65/ 15678.90/ 15692.15 [-39.95/-0.25%]

BANK NIFTY O / H / L / C

33317.80/ 33554.55/ 33249.55/ 33339.00 [+27.65/+0.08%]

India Vix 22.15/+1.19%

FII DII Data Not yet available

SGX Nifty @ 1710h +26

TOP 5 CONTRIBUTORS OF NIFTY

Lifters 176

Draggers 216

Net -40

TOP 3 CONTRIBUTORS OF BANK NIFTY

Lifters 85

Draggers 50

Net +35

CHART BASED DETAILS & ANALYSIS IS GIVEN IN THIS VIDEO: https://youtu.be/s02t90tn_2g

POSITIVES

Excellent contribution from the Bajaj twins - Bajaj Finance (NS: BJFN ) & Bajaj Finserv (NS: BJFS ) aggregating 100 points which saved the day for Nifty .

Bank Nifty ended in the green.

NEGATIVE

Reliance (NS: RELI ), the HDFC (NS: HDFC ) twins, and Infosys (NS: INFY ) keep creating challenges for the indices.

India Vix is back up above 22.

SUPPORTS & RESISTANCE LEVELS

I will venture in to drawing the lines only based on the close for the week.

TRADING INSIGHTS & OBSERVATIONS

  1. Keeping in view the mixed global cues, especially with a negative bias in Asian markets, the Nifty opened mildly negative suggesting that it may just bounce back from the lows and begin a new journey well past the swing high of 15880.
  2. And Nifty seemed to have implemented the thought as it made a high of 780 in the first 5 minutes itself, but only to fall 80+ points thereafter and broke 15700 as if it was just a vapor line. Nifty made the opening low of 15692 in the first 5 minutes.
  3. It was a very wobbly start for the indices as the heavyweights were once again under severe pressure - Reliance, the HDFC twins, and then Infosys. In the process, Nifty broke the earlier low and created a new [not sure if it would last till EOD] at 15683.
  4. India Vix was at 22+ and clearly, the bulls and the bears had a hard-fought battle in action as the 15700 line was pulled up in one tick and dragged in the other. The two sides appear to have decided that one of them is likely to show its might by EOD. The global cues also did not help the bulls as gradually the US Futures started losing.
  5. Reliance broke the crucial mark of 2600 in no time and created a new low at 2584 and then in the next hour, it bounced back up by 53 points and this obviously helped Nifty get back to where it intended to be.
  6. However, for Nifty it was not the end of the rough ride as the FIIs then targeted HDFC and brought it down and it appeared that it may retest the 52-week low of 2046. For now [in the AM session], it halted at 2071 and then made attempts to recover. The future of the Nifty largely depends upon these hammered stocks - the HDFC twins, the IT twins, in particular.
  7. Soon after FTSE opened, Nifty was in a very tight range below 15800 and also around the 15775 levels where there was an earlier close during the week. It appeared that it may just be able to gain enough strength to sail past 15800.
  8. However, as I was building this view, the FIIs read my mind and they realized that it is only 90 minutes to the close and therefore, they chose Reliance and Infosys to drag Nifty below 15700 from around 15775 and that eventually meant that Nifty ended the day 15692.
  9. Today’s close of Nifty is the lowest close since July 2021 which is a big blow to the index and Bank Nifty was helped by State Bank Of India (NS: SBI ) in particular as its contribution was the main differentiator between a red close and a green close. Bank Nifty ended 27 points above at 33339.
  10. The India Vix ended again above 22 and this coupled with a tight trading range does indicate that there is likely to be a big move in store for us - now which side of the fence is what needs to be experienced.
  11. The most notable contributions for Nifty were from the Bajaj twins - Bajaj Finance & Bajaj Finserv as together they contributed close to 100 points. If only they had remained flat, I cannot imagine where Nifty would have dipped.
  12. Tomorrow is not only the weekly expiry but the markets would release their sentiments about the outcome of the ECB emergency meeting as well as the Fed meeting. Both these relate to the rate hikes so a big game is likely to unfold tomorrow.

Note: Posted purely for informational & educational purposes only.

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  • Naresh Nag @Naresh Nag
    si the sir nonsec
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  • Naresh Nag @Naresh Nag
    si the sir nonsec
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  • Donald Musk @Donald Musk
    Bitcoin has beaten every other tradable assets so far and mr Henry has been a major help to me in understanding the market better and making the best choice in trading. Reach him on Face📄book 👉 Henry Anderson Fx
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  • Donald Musk @Donald Musk
    Bitcoin has beaten every other tradable assets so far and mr Henry has been a major help to me in understanding the market better and making the best choice in trading. Reach him on Face📄book 👉 Henry Anderson Fx
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  • ASHOK KUMAR @ASHOK KUMAR
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  • Lewis G @Lewis G
    15900
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    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      Thank you for the feedback
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