Nifty Breaks Down, Bank Nifty Survives

  • Stock Market Analysis
  • Editors Pick
NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 19-1-22

In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.

O 18129.20

H 18129.20

L 17884.90

C 17938.40

EOD -174.65 points / -0.96%

SGX Nifty 19-1-22 @ 1845h = +11

FII DII = Not yet available

CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart

Nifty opened flat and then started and lost 100+ points in the first 30 minutes and was able to bounce back up above 18000 only once before it broke the level again.

It then broke 17900 as well and made a new daily low at 17884. Interestingly, all these levels are the ones that were visited earlier either as a support or a resistance.

Nifty has not only made a much lower high but also a much lower low. And same goes for Bank Nifty but it is much better off than Nifty.

NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS

Top 5 Lifters contributed = 23

Top 5 Draggers contributed = 106

Net = -83

BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS

Top 3 Lifters contributed = 163

Top 3 Draggers contributed = 358

Net = -195

POSITIVES

Nifty is down by 174 points and Bank Nifty by 168 points. Clearly, Bank Nifty has saved the day for Nifty otherwise it could have gone down by additional 100-150+ points.

To this extent, Bank Nifty has outperformed Nifty.

Tata Motors (NS: TAMO ) and Maruti (NS: MRTI ) were ended in the green.

Although Reliance (NS: RELI ) too was under pressure, on an EOD basis it remained flat and that is what helped Nifty in closing above 17900.

NEGATIVES

IT big heads Infosys (NS: INFY ) and TCS (NS: TCS ), as well as the three Bank Nifty big heads HDFC Bank (NS: HDBK ), ICICI Bank (NS: ICBK ), and Kotak Bank, got hammered today and that is what has led to the downfall to a great extent.

The entire fall in Bank Nifty on EOD basis has been contributed by the 3 leaders and 3 draggers of the index.

Though India Vix has ended almost flat, it was 18+ during the day and the indices were very volatile with big spreads/

TRADING RANGE FOR 20 JAN 22

Nifty support = 17800-17900

Nifty resistance = 17950-18000 and then every 50 points until ends above 18350.

Bank Nifty Support = 37500-38000

Bank Nifty resistance = 38400-500-700-900

INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS

  • After the initial fall in the first half an hour, this is what was going on:

  • The spreads as well as the pace of movements in Bank Nifty with India Vix at 18+ remind me of the Mar-Aor 2020 days when the Vix was way higher than what it is. In a blink, Bank Nifty used to fall 50-75 points and that is what happened today.
  • This kind of fear in the market is of concern and unless the weekends with a positive bias from the previous week, we may have some headwinds ahead of the budget itself.
  • The FII approach of selling every rally infected the DIIs as well since they too started selling of course in small numbers. I really wonder how many total holdings the FIIs have that their non-stop selling appetite has hammered the HDFC (NS: HDFC ) twins and other leading scrips in a big way.
  • It is said that all good things come to an end - and that is how the 5-day streak of Nifty OHLC above 18000 came to a bearish end, and Bank Nifty’s streak for OHLC above 38000 lasted for 6 days and came to an end today as well.
  • In comparison to 18-1, Nifty’s open was lower by 200+ points and Nifty’s day low was lower by 201 points. Is this yet again a data-driven performance?

Here is the link to the video:
https://youtu.be/DELPKNnmz3U

The post is for educational & informational purposes only.

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  • Manoj Sherkar @Manoj Sherkar
    1 question mind tree up & down
    Like 0
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      No idea as I don't track it
      Like 0
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  • Veer Choudhary @Veer Choudhary
    So i think nifty will fall tomorrow and open will be 50 points down
    Like 0
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      Thank you for the feedback. It's wait and watch for now.
      Like 0
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