Nifty 50 Monthly Expiry: Tug of War Between the Bulls & Bears to Continue!

  • Stock Market Analysis

After the Indian markets discounted the US Fed’s 75 bps rate hike along with hawkish commentary for the rest of the year, at the opening tick, the buying from the lower levels in the Nifty 50 is again proving that Indian investors are not willing to give up. For the last many sessions, whenever a weakness in our markets was noticed, almost all of the time it was on account of global cues. Our local strength has kept our markets from falling which has been proven time and again.

Today’s sharp recovery is even more important as it showed that investors are not scared of the economic turmoil in the US markets. Secondly, recovery was seen despite the rupee plunging to a new low of 80.8 against the US dollar which is a massive fall. Clearly, the strength is there from local funds which is holding the fall, but the pressure from the top on account of global uncertainty is also keeping our markets from making new highs.

In the midst of a tug of war between the bulls and bears, the market seems to be going sideways with high volatility. The current weekly expiry is almost ending on a flat note, despite a weekly range of around 490 points, from a high of 17,919.3 to a low of 17,429.7. 

Now the monthly expiry is on the cards and it again seems like a range-bound one. The resistance on the upside seems to be around 17,920 and the support on the lower side is a time-tested level of 17,500 and then to 17,430 - 17,400. The second support level would come into effect if the market sustains below 17,500 which hasn’t happened in entire September 2022. The market tested the 17,500 support 5 times in September but was never able to sustain below it.

The options data is also conforming to the above levels. The ATM 17750 CE is trading at a premium of INR 153 and the ATM 17750 PE is quoting at INR 198. Therefore, the range for the upside is coming out to be around 17,900 and around 17550 on the downside. ATM premiums are a good indicator to gauge the market expectations of a range till expiry.

The highest open interest is present at 18000 CE, at over 94.3K contracts, translating the 18,000 level to be the ultimate resistance till 29 September 2022. On the downside, 17,500 PE still holds the highest OI of 90.5K contracts despite today’s gap down. Hence the level of 17,500 should not be ignored as a very robust demand zone. 

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  • Moolinti Rajesh @Moolinti Rajesh
    aayush khanna what is ur trading experience and how can we believe you. no one can guess the market situation at any cost. this analysis are trash after morning 9:15 trading day. ur all article writer's became kids story tellers in week days.
    Like 0
    • Aayush Khanna/Investing.com @Aayush Khanna/Investing.com
      Pls go to my LinkedIn profile to see my trading experience :) Thanks.
      Like 0
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  • Ayush K Pal @Ayush K Pal
    Nifty50 or any index don't follow chart, infact chart follow indexes movements and indexes follow market news. Investers should aware of the analysis by experts.
    Like 0
  • KP M @KP M
    They feel more happy to break the massive strength
    Like 0
  • Charan Teja @Charan Teja
    Sir, can you please spot the same levels in niftybees. It would be very helpful as the beginners, I'll be able to corelate the levels with nifty 50 next time. thanks in advance
    Like 1
    • Aayush Khanna/Investing.com @Aayush Khanna/Investing.com
      Hi Charan, due to low liquidity in the Nifty Bees, the price levels are quite erratic.  But with a side-by-side comparison, you can get a fair idea.
      Like 1
    • Charan Teja @Charan Teja
      Like 0
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  • Charan Teja @Charan Teja
    Sir, can you please spot the same levels in niftybees. It would be very helpful as the beginners, I'll be able to corelate the levels with nifty 50 next time. thanks in advance
    Like 0
  • Charan Teja @Charan Teja
    Sir, can you please spot the same levels in niftybees. It would be very helpful as the beginners, I'll be able to corelate the levels with nifty 50 next time. thanks in advance
    Like 0
  • KUMKUM RANI @KUMKUM RANI
    😀Respected Sir, I liked the report which is clear and understandable to us.  Congrats.....
    Like 1

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