Nifty -427, Bank Nifty -1077, for how Long will the Indices Hold Monday's low?

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NIFTY O / H / L / C

15877.55/ 15886.15/ 15684.00/ 1774.40 [-427.40/-2.64%]

BANK NIFTY O / H / L / C

33728.65/ 33774.65/ 33210.35/ 33405.85 [-1077.95/-3.13%]

India Vix 22.37/+14.25%

FII DII Data -1,350 Crores

SGX Nifty @ 1850h Flat

TOP 5 CONTRIBUTORS OF NIFTY

Lifters 001

Draggers 175

Net -174

TOP 3 CONTRIBUTORS OF BANK NIFTY

Lifters 000

Draggers 705

Net -705

CHART BASED DETAILS & ANALYSIS IS GIVEN IN THIS VIDEO: https://youtu.be/BfpHjxlci4I

POSITIVES

None.

NEGATIVE

Almost everything went on the negative side. More details are in the Insights section.

SUPPORTS & RESISTANCE LEVELS

I will venture into drawing the lines only based on the close for the week.

TRADING INSIGHTS & OBSERVATIONS

  1. Monday's opening was like an open secret and the question was whether Nifty would open closer to 16000 or would breach the big line at the open itself. And Nifty, not only breached the big line of 16K, but it also opened below 15900!
  2. It then tried to hit higher, but was immediately thrown away by some intense selling pressure within the next hour or so. Fell another 100 points to the earlier support zones around 15775. It then made a small recovery in an attempt to settle above 15800, but it was rejected yet again.
  3. By this time, the India Vix had already raised its head in a big way which added to the redness all over the indices. It was a very gloomy session with each passing minute. The reason for all this was very simple - the US Futures had been hitting lower lows on a regular basis and the Asian markets were also bleeding.
  4. And with the FTSE also opening in a deep red with their economy shrinking, Nifty started bleeding even further and was not let down by Bank Nifty at all. In fact, the loss in Bank Nifty was much heavier than Nifty.
  5. Between 1230h and 1430h, Nifty fell more than 100 points from around 15800 and almost retested the Mar 2022 low of 15671. It hit the low point of 15684 which turned out to be the low for the day as well.
  6. In the last hour, possibly on account of the DII buying, Nifty, as well as Bank Nifty, made a good recovery of almost 100 points & 200 points respectively. Nifty ended well below 15800 and Bank Nifty ended just above 33400.
  7. None of the heavyweights in either of the indices had any ability to arrest the fall as the indices kept falling like melting ice and the India Vix kept rising like an inferno and ended the day well above 22 with a jump of 14%+.
  8. There is little point in mentioning what % the heavyweights were down and how badly the damage has been done as Monday’s attack was brutal. I am not sure if our markets have behaved in this manner at any time in the foreseeable past.
  9. The impact was very severe and the recovery was not so strong as the Nifty possibly ended at the lowest level in 2022. This is a big thing and would this turn out to be the low point for the indices?
  10. The FIIs have sold close to 5,000 Crores and I have a feeling that even the DIIs would have sold into the weakness and bought back in the last one hour. As I had mentioned earlier, it is natural for the DIIs also to sell as they too would need to generate funds to keep supporting the market.
  11. I have a feeling that Life Insurance Corporation Of India (NS: LIFI ) is possibly unable to simply jump in and salvage the market with huge buy orders post the IPO as the DIIs buying has been invariably lower than the FIIs selling.
  12. The rupee has also fallen significantly to its highest level to USD which is also not a good sign. The RBI failed to act in time for curbing inflation, and I am not sure why are they acting indifferent to the adverse exchange rate.
  13. I suspect some intervention is likely to happen within the next 2 sessions as, given the current situation, it would be hard to keep justifying the free fall in the INR as well as the indices.

Note: Posted purely for informational & educational purposes only.

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  • Shailendra Kumar @Shailendra Kumar
    Very precise observation !
    Like 1
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      Thank you for the kind words.
      Like 0
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