Nifty 30 June Expiry: A Look at Key Data Points

  • Stock Market Analysis

Yesterday, the Indian markets ended the session on a slightly positive note, after recovering from a decent fall during the day. However, today, the broader markets have seen a noticeable correction, owing to global negative cues which might persist till tomorrow’s expiry. The Nifty 50 index is trading 0.68% lower at 15,744 and the Sensex is down 0.65% to 52,826, by 9:49 AM IST. 

One of the worries for Indian investors is a bounce-back in crude oil prices. Oil prices have recovered from ~US$109 per barrel levels to the current price of US$117 per barrel which is becoming a bit of concern as higher oil prices tend to increase the import bills of the country because India is heavily dependent on the import of crude oil for its domestic consumption.

Another impact of higher oil prices is seen in the rapid depreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar which is also denting investors’ sentiments. Currently, the USD/INR pair is trading at around 78.95, which is around the record low levels.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has also retraced around 1,000 points from the day’s high in the last session after the Consumer Confidence Index tumbled to a 16-month low in June 2022. All these macro factors combined don't paint a rosy picture for the Nifty in the very short term.

Coming to the charts, despite getting volatile, the Nifty 50 index has more or less been trading in a range for the last few days. By the coming expiry, the Nifty 50 index might find it difficult to surge past its immediate resistance of around 15,900, which was touched a couple of days back. This level has even stopped the index to rise further in order to close a big gap on the charts which was marked on 13 June 2022.

On the downside, 15,600 would be the immediate support level, which is roughly 140 points lower than the CMP. 

Today’s fall has also led to an increase in the India VIX by 1.86% to 21.85. As the VIX is still trading above 20, volatility should always be expected, especially on the expiry day.

Surprisingly, the highest open interest (OI) has been added to the 15,700 CE for the 30 June 2022 expiry, at over 82K contracts, which is an ITM strike price. This depicts the bears are confident that by the expiry, the market might fall further from the CMP. A higher OI would also lead to a stronger short covering if the market sustains above this level.

Talking about the support, today, the highest OI has also been added to the 15,700 PE, at over 75.9K contracts, which is just 50 points away from the CMP. Clearly, the bulls and bears are both writing options at close strikes, which might lead to either a strong move on one side or a completely range-bound trend.

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  • Sridhar N Rao @Sridhar N Rao
    Ultimately, you cannot predict where Nifty is headed for the month end expiry . Say that plain and Simple first.
    Like 2
  • Suneel Mundra @Suneel Mundra
    all going round and round, conclusion either way strong move or range bound..... ha ha ha, what else market can do
    Like 6
    • lakshmana jammalamadaka @lakshmana jammalamadaka
      yes sir you are true not at all usefull
      Like 1
    • muneesh kumar @muneesh kumar
      what a great conclusion........means there is no clear direction expected
      Like 0
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  • Vivek Sharma @Vivek Sharma
    spot on summary.
    Like 1
  • MOXANKI BHAVSAR @MOXANKI BHAVSAR
    👍
    Like 0
  • Ashish Chawla @Ashish Chawla
    "which might lead to either a strong move on one side or a completely range-bound trend."...lol what is left! thats called playing safe..worthless!
    Like 0
  • NIGAM JOGADIA @NIGAM JOGADIA
    THANK YOU😁🤘😁🤘
    Like 1
    • Aayush Khanna/Investing.com @Aayush Khanna/Investing.com
      You're welcome Nigam.
      Like 0
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