Natural Gas Dropped Amid Forecasts Cooler Weather and Lower Demand than Expected

  • Commodities Analysis

Natural Gas yesterday settled down by -3.94% at 290 on forecasts for cooler weather over the next two weeks and lower air conditioning demand than previously expected. However, downside seen limited on a smaller-than-expected storage build and forecasts for more air conditioning demand next week than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast utilities added 36 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 23. U.S. natural gas prices in 2021 at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will likely rise to their highest since 2018 as governments ease lockdowns and demand rises faster than producers can restore output shut during the 2020 coronavirus-linked price drop.    
 
After collapsing to a 25-year low in 2020, analysts forecast gas prices in 2021 will average $3.08 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) before slipping to $2.99 in 2022. In 2020, average prices dropped by 21% to $2.03 per mmBtu, their lowest since 1995. That compares with a five-year average (2015-19) of $2.77 and a 10-year average (2010-2019) of $3.31. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has slipped to 91.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, due mostly to pipeline problems in West Virginia early in the month.  
 
Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -10.14% to settled at 13166 while prices are down -11.9 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 284.9 and below same could see a test of 279.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 297.4, a move above could see prices testing 304.9.  

Trading Ideas:
# Natural gas trading range for the day is 279.9-304.9.
# Natural gas dropped on forecasts for cooler weather over the next two weeks and lower air conditioning demand than previously expected.
# However downside seen limited on a smaller-than-expected storage build and forecasts for more air conditioning demand next week.
# EIA forecast utilities added 36 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended July 23.

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  • tejshree thakur @tejshree thakur
    yes ankit, but it is true last 4-5 week future demand decrease for august September. and all over world storage built-in at higher risk. so most of country can't consume gas and oil due to coal and other playing cheap electricity
    Like 2
  • Ankit Malhotra @Ankit Malhotra
    I think fully lack knowledge 286 287 support why say 278 upper circuit break evening time
    Like 0

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