Nat Gas Fell As Reduced LNG Exports Allowed And Injecting More Gas Into Storage

  • Commodities Analysis
AJAY KEDIA

Natural Gas yesterday settled down by -2.51% at 445.8 as record output and reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports allowed utilities to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual for weeks. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.6 bcfd so far in October, up from a monthly record of 99.4 bcfd in September. With milder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would fall from 100.7 bcfd this week to 96.7 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday.

The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has fallen to 11.1 bcfd so far in October from 11.5 bcfd in September and well below the monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The seven big U.S. export plants can turn about 13.8 bcfd of gas into LNG. U.S. LNG exports, however, could start to rise this week if Cove Point returns to service as some traders expect. U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana will rise to $6.76 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2022, their highest since 2008, before falling to $5.64 in 2023, according to analyst forecasts.

Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -17.3% to settle at 9573 while prices are down -11.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 433.8 and below same could see a test of 421.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 460.6, a move above could see prices testing 475.4.

Trading Ideas:
# Natural gas trading range for the day is 421.8-475.4.
# Natural gas fell as record output and reduced LNG exports allowed utilities to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual for weeks.
# Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.6 bcfd so far in October
# Average US gas demand, including exports, is expected to fall to 94.9 bcfd next week from 100.3 bcfd this week.

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  • Pushpak Singla @Pushpak Singla
    sir Nov ki buy h 550 par rates aa jayenge ya nikal jau
    Like 0

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