Nat. Gas Down On Forecasts For Milder Weather And Less Heating Demand

Nat. Gas yesterday settled down by -4.01% at 191.6 on forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That decline came even though liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports remained near record levels and last week's storage draw was slightly bigger than expected. U.S. natural gas production and demand will drop in 2021 as the economic fallout from coronavirus lockdowns continues, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

EIA projected dry gas production will drop to 88.17 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 from 90.76 bcfd in 2020 before rising to 89.66 bcfd in 2022. That compares with an all-time high of 93.06 bcfd in 2019. It also projected gas consumption would fall to 80.73 bcfd in 2021 and 79.03 bcfd in 2022 from 83.06 bcfd in 2020. That compares with a record high of 85.15 bcfd in 2019.

If the outlook is correct, 2021 would be the first time output falls for two years in a row since 2005, and 2022 would be the first time consumption falls for three consecutive years since 1983. EIA's projections for 2021 in January were higher than its December forecasts of 87.91 bcfd for supply and 79.37 bcfd for demand.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.8% to settled at 5712 while prices down -8 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 186.8 and below same could see a test of 182.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 197.7, a move above could see prices testing 203.9.

Trading Ideas:
# Natural gas trading range for the day is 182.1-203.9.
# Natural gas fell on forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
# Decline came even though liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports remained near record levels and last week's storage draw was slightly bigger than expected.
# EIA projected dry gas production will drop to 88.17 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2021 from 90.76 bcfd in 2020 before rising to 89.66 bcfd in 2022.