Jeera Gains as the Export of Cumin is Increasing Continuously

  • Commodities Analysis

Jeera   yesterday settled up by 1.15% at 14540 as the export of cumin is increasing continuously and in the coming days, there are signs of increasing the export of cumin in a big way. However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels. With the forecast of normal rains in the western region from September to November, the sowing of cumin seeds in Gujarat and Rajasthan may increase. In 2021 (January-June), the country has exported more than 1.50 lakh tonnes of cumin as compared to 1.3 lakh tonnes in the same period last year. Purchase of cumin seeds from African and Middle East countries will be diverted from other countries to India this year.  
 
Recent estimates state that cumin production has slumped by 60% in Iran’s Razavi Khorasan Province due to severe drought and unusually cold weather coupled with an early spring. Rainfall ranges 63% lower than last year this season so far. Temperatures ranged 3.1-0.4C (37.58-32.72F) lower between October 2020 and April 2021 than in the same period in 2019/2020 according to official statistics. Extensive crop losses were seen, the early onset of spring in February also caused serious damage to production. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 52.6 Rupees to end at 14461.55 Rupees per 100 kg. 
 
Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.7% to settled at while prices up 165 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 14400 and below same could see a test of 14255 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14690, a move above could see prices testing 14835.  

Trading Ideas:
# Jeera trading range for the day is 14255-14835.
# Jeera gains as the export of cumin are increasing continuously and in the coming days there are signs of increasing the export of cumin
# However upside seen limited as adequate stock with traders and farmers may keeping prices under pressure at higher levels.
# India's cumin exports will increase due to less supply from Afghanistan-Syrian
# In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 52.6 Rupees to end at 14461.55 Rupees per 100 kg.
 
 

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