Greetings, fellow market enthusiasts!
Firstly, let’s take a victory lap before diving into today’s analysis. As some of you who follow my pre-market YouTube videos know, last week was once again a home run! Every single trade plan shared for equity traders, option buyers, and sellers turned out to be profitable. Now, let’s see if the same trend continues in the upcoming pre-market videos on stocks plus indexes. This is because, in the past two weeks, no trade plan shared has gone wrong. So, I would hate to break the winning streak soon.
Speaking of analysis, today I will cover three stocks and one index. The stocks being covered are Maruti Suzuki (NS:MRTI), Mahindra & Mahindra, and Sun TV (NS:SUTV). While the index is Nifty Midcap. The article covers Maruti Suzuki, while the YouTube video shared below analyses Sun TV, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Nifty Midcap. I covered these stocks via a video as their charts are more complex. Hence, via a video, I can explain their details more intricately. I have looked at Midcap Nifty because of its expiry and shared my option-buying and selling trading strategies for it.
Maruti Suzuki:
Buckle up, because things will get a bit negative for this car giant. News-wise, Maruti is all set for a double whammy. Firstly, I expect the stock to suffer from the MSCI rejig. This is a significant headwind, as it is causing a large capital outflow due to the weight reduction. The next issue is the August auto sales data, which has worsened for Maruti. This is as passenger vehicle sales fell by 8% to 14,3075 units from 156,114 units a year ago. Moreover, Maruti’s bread and butter segment of compact cars saw a drop of 20%. That is a large hit on the numbers.
Now let’s shift gears and take a look at the chart. Since March of this year, the stock has been stuck in a frustrating box range. Thus, I do not expect any significant short or long opportunities unless the stock either breaks 12,680 on the upside or 12,000 on the downside. Until then, this box range is likely to squeeze both long and short traders, so be cautious!
Coming to the levels, if it breaks 12,680 on the upside, then we can have a quick rise to 13,100. On the downside, if it breaks 12,000, then a fall to 11,520 is highly likely. So, how do we play this?
On the equity front, with the MSCI overhang, I would not recommend chasing this as a value buy just yet. I say this as the stock has been range-bound since March, which indicates deeper issues than just the rebalancing. So, equity investors, this might be a good time to politely decline Maruti Suzuki’s invitation to the party.
Now, for the options players out there, things get a little more exciting. While I wouldn’t touch the equity right now, I do have a derivative position. I specifically hold call option sells above 12,600. This strategy worked for me in August, and I also entered it at the beginning of last week via the September series. I plan to hold these CE sells with a tight stop-loss, as I believe any upward move will be short-lived. This is as I expect the stock to most likely retest the 12,000 support in this series. If that breaks, then the fall to 11,520 is imminent! And if that happens, I will be ready to sell fresh call options of above 12,000 again.
Overall, Maruti Suzuki’s short-term future looks bumpier than a pothole-ridden road. The auto sector itself isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders, as they are having huge issues with dead stock. However, for Maruti, the MSCI rebalancing adds another layer of uncertainty. So, for equity investors, this might be a stock to park elsewhere for now. But for option sellers like myself, there will be many profitable opportunities lurking around the corner. Lastly, to get the full picture on Mahindra & Mahindra, Sun TV, and the Nifty Midcap expiry strategies, be sure to check out my YouTube video! Trust me, you won’t want to miss those money-making gems.
Until next time, happy trading!
NB: The links to the Youtube videos I discussed above are shared below:
- Mahindra & Mahindra, Sun TV & Nifty Midcap - https://youtu.be/sWxz30LaukI
- Reliance Industries (NS:RELI) Trading Plan - https://youtu.be/nJQYUUpeWB0
- SBI (NS:SBI) and IndusInd Bank (NS:INBK) Trading Plan - https://youtu.be/zeBXlxzjRqM
- Wipro (NS:WIPR) Trading Plan - https://youtu.be/gqVif832tvU