Indices Test Patience - Nifty Ends Lower & Bank Nifty Indecisive

  • Stock Market Analysis

NIFTY 16951/-0.20%/28-3-23 

  • The Open Price was +47 points compared to the 27-3 Open price which was a bullish start to the day. 
  • Nifty made a low at 16913 which was a mildly downward shift to the lower base and a bearish sign. 
  • The Close Price was -80 points from the open price which is a bearish sign. 
  • The Close - High difference was -110 points which is also a bearish sign. 
  • Nifty made a lower high, a lower low, and a lower close.   
  • The price action is bearish.

BANK NIFTY 39567/+0.35%/28-3-23

  • The Open Price was +60 points compared to the 27-3 Open price which was a mildly bullish start to the day. 
  • Bank Nifty made a low at 39326 which is a mildly upward shift to the lower base and a bullish sign.  
  • The Close Price was +23 points from the open price which indicates indecisiveness. 
  • The Close - High difference was -77 points which is a bearish sign  
  • Bank Nifty made a lower high, a higher low, and a higher close.
  • The price action is indecisive.

Insights

  • India Vix ended at 15.10/-2.27%. 
  • Bank Nifty appeared to be better off than Nifty from the start itself. However, for some reason, it could never gather enough momentum despite holding on to the lower level of the previous day. 
  • The index has made a very interesting price action movement - higher low and higher close and the prices moved within the price range of yesterday. 
  • It seems that the recovery from here is more likely to be coming in from the banking stocks and Bank Nifty may have formed its bottom for now around 39200.
  • In contrast, Nifty has made several attempts to keep going lower and lower and it could not even sustain for even a few minutes above the previous close of 16985. It proved to be too hard to clear. 
  • The willingness of Nifty to come closer to 16900 is not a good sign as if it breaks on a closing basis, especially on the monthly expiry day, 16500-800 may open up as a probing zone. 
  • 16900 is too close and may have weakened a bit as well, but 39200 looks better placed. 
  • If the indices open gap-down, an expiry full of fireworks may be on the cards. Also, tomorrow is the first expiry of the Do Not Exercise option rule not being available so it is likely to be a very interesting price-action drama in the PM session. 
  • Today as well, the trio of HDFC Bank (NS: HDBK ), Reliance (NS: RELI ), and ICICI Bank (NS: ICBK ) contributed the highest for Nifty whereas the Adani Twins dragged Nifty by 20 points. 
  • It is a pleasant surprise to record that on a day when the Nifty ended lower, the FIIs have turned net buyers and the DIIs have sold to some extent. Now, my curiosity level for tomorrow has increased even more. 

What do you feel?

 
FII-DII data 

FII  +1531 Crores

DII -156 Crores

Net +1375 Crores

Support
16800-900 & 38800-39000-200

Resistance
Major levels 17000-050-100 & 39600-800-40000

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  • Mandar Kar @Mandar Kar
    expiry near 39163
    Like 0
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      Thank you for sharing your thoughts
      Like 0
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  • rohan pawar @rohan pawar
    tomorrow is going to be all bullish
    Like 5
    • Balaraj MM @Balaraj MM
      Any news for upper side?
      Like 0
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