Indices Restore Order for now as India VIX Slips a Bit

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NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 25-1-22

In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for Thursday. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play Thursday.

O 17001.95

H 17309.15

L 16836.80

C 17277.95

EOD +128.85 points / +0.75%

SGX Nifty 25-1-22 @ 1845h = -36

FII DII = Not yet available

CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart

Nifty made a sharp gap-down open and then fell further to create a lower low but within 5 minutes, it immediately made a smart and sharp recovery to hit 17149, the previous close by 1000h.

However, as is generally the case FIIs are the net sellers on the earlier day, Nifty fell 125+ points and after some consolidation around the key 17000 levels, it recovered and went sideways.

And the final move started just before 1300h, and in a steady but relentless rise, it ended the day well past 17200.

Quite interestingly, Bank Nifty has made a higher high and a higher low whereas Nifty has made a lower high and a lower low despite it closing 128 points above yesterday’s close.

NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS

Top 5 Lifters contributed = 75

Top 5 Draggers contributed = 31

Net = +44

BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS

Top 3 Lifters contributed = 591

Top 3 Draggers contributed = 00

Net = +591

POSITIVES

Nifty ended above 17250. And Bank Nifty made a smart recovery from the lows and ended above 37700.

Strong buying & or short covering in SBIN, Axis Bank (NS: AXBK ), Kotak Bank, Maruti (NS: MRTI ), and Tata Motors (NS: TAMO ) helped the indices come out of the lows.

NEGATIVES

Infosys (NS: INFY ), TCS (NS: TCS ), HDFC (NS: HDFC ), and Reliance (NS: RELI ) were responsible for Nifty not being able to rise further.

Nifty made yet another lower low and could not sustain above 17300.

HDFC Bank (NS: HDBK ) has not made any positive moves. If it remains as is, we may have issues on the monthly expiry day.

TRADING RANGE FOR 27 JAN 22

Tomorrow is a market holiday and on 27-1 is the monthly expiry. So we are likely to have an eventful session and therefore, I would prefer to wait for the indices to expire the series and then draw the lines for the Feb series.

INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS

  • Bank Nifty in its typical manner towered over Nifty and ended the day with a gain of 2.05%. This was mainly led by SBIN, Axis Bank, and Kotak Bank. The trio contributed 581 of the 759 points rally in the index.
  • It is a rare day for Bank Nifty that there is no scrip that made any attempt to drag it down on an EOD basis. I like such days even if they are rare.
  • Yesterday, Bank Nifty was down by 626 points and today up by 759. The moves made intraday and on a close to close basis look significant, but in absolute terms as compared to 21-1-22, it has made a move of fewer than 200 points on the upside. This is why it is a hard index to manage from a trader/investor perspective even if it gives returns when the direction is right as a slot machine.
  • Now let us look at Nifty dynamics - in comparison to yesterday’s open, Nifty opened the day at 17001, which is 574 lower. However, it ended the day 128 points higher than yesterday’s close. And in between, it hurt many traders when it fell 164 points from the open price to make another swing low.
  • Today’s price action may have motivated many and would have brought joy as well, but we should not forget that we are not yet out of the woods. With only 3 sessions to go before the Budget day, we are down by more than 1,000 points [18350], the swing high from where the red waterfall unfolded.

What do you feel about this?

Here is the link to the video:
https://youtu.be/0XmOhbOAK8I

The post is for educational & informational purposes only.

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  • Himanshu Kumar @Himanshu Kumar
    hllo
    Like 0
  • ravi kiran paruchuri @ravi kiran paruchuri
    Nifty to touch 17486
    Like 0
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      Good to know that
      Like 0
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