Indices Press Control Z, Reverse Gains Made Yesterday

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NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 03-12-21

In this post, I will talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for Monday. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play Monday.

O 17424.90

H 17489.80

L 17180.80

C 17196.70

EOD -204.95 points / +1.37%

India VIX 18.45/+2.05%

SGX Nifty 03-12-21 @ 1820h = +19 points

FII DII = Not yet available

CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart

Nifty opened with a minor gap up and exactly hit one of the earlier intraday resistance levels and then never looked back.

It tried to consolidate between 17350-400 but failed and soon afternoon, the steady sell-off started which never ended until the markets closed.

FTSE opened with a good gap up but later that also caved in so Nifty did not have to do any brain work as it was already drifting.

Despite the apparent bearishness, Nifty has made a higher high and a higher low. However, Bank Nifty could not hold on to the low of yesterday and almost came close to 36000.

NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS

Top 5 Lifters contributed = 9

Top 5 Draggers contributed = 103

Net = -94

BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS [New]

Top 3 Lifters contributed = 8

Top 3 Draggers contributed = 262

Net = -254

POSITIVES

It is very hard to find any positive today especially after an impressive performance given yesterday.

The consoling aspects were –

Bank Nifty did not breach 36000.

Nifty managed to hold on to the levels above the close of 1 Dec - 17166.

NEGATIVES

From an impressive start by Bank Nifty in particular to a miserable showdown by almost 800 points, the Indices have undone all the efforts of the bulls that would have been done yesterday.

Reliance (NS: RELI ), HDFC (NS: HDFC ) twins, ICICI Bank (NS: ICBK ), and Kotak Bank were hammered and used as the tools to drag the indices from a situation of hitting 17500 on Nifty and 37000 in the case of Bank Nifty.

TRADING RANGE FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING 06 Dec 21

Nifty Support = 17000-17200

Nifty Resistance = 17250-300-350-400

Bank Nifty Support = 35800-36000

Bank Nifty Resistance = 36400-600-800-37000

INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS

  • In my view, the market moves for the day were such that it completely ignored the fact that 2 Dec was a trading day. Here is my tweet on the same:

  • Today I traded 36500 PE + CE and yesterday I also traded these two. What I observed was that overnight there was a decay of 40 points when these were ATM CE / PE today. In fact today, in the opening few minutes Bank Nifty shot up and yet there was the decay once it retraced to 36500. This is the reason why Option Writers may be making money as the India Vix was also down in the morning.
  • Yesterday’s Top 5 Lifters & Draggers contributed +95 points. Today, they contributed -95! This is quite an interesting situation and confirms that in the end, Nifty did not go anywhere over the last 2 sessions.
  • Bank Nifty was down 311 points and 262 of these were contributed by Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank (NS: HDBK ), and ICICI Bank. This is the power of the three big heads of Bank Nifty.

Here is the video link --
https://youtu.be/_5spwe0Yb-g

NOTE --

This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.

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  • Anurag Verma @Anurag Verma
    nifty up again
    Like 0
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      On a weekly basis, Yes
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  • Viswanatha Srivatsava @Viswanatha Srivatsava
    good one sir 👏👏👏🤝
    Like 0
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      Thank you for the feedback.
      Like 0
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