Indices have a Free Fall, will Nifty Break 15000? Bank Nifty 32000?

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NIFTY O / H / L / C

15832.25/ 15863.15/ 15335.10/ 15360.60 [-331.55/-2.11%]

BANK NIFTY O / H / L / C

33648.80/ 33756.50/ 32537.95/ 32617.10 [-721.90/-2.17%]

India Vix 22.83/+3.35%

FII DII Data Not yet available

SGX Nifty @ 1850h +45

TOP 5 CONTRIBUTORS OF NIFTY

Lifters 001

Draggers 109

Net -108

TOP 3 CONTRIBUTORS OF BANK NIFTY

Lifters 000

Draggers 480

Net -480

CHART-BASED DETAILS & ANALYSIS ARE GIVEN IN THIS VIDEO: https://youtu.be/YVvq1nAt-LI

POSITIVES

The market ended at 1530h.

NEGATIVE

All the heavyweights have broken key levels and have ended in the red.

India Vix ended just below 23.

SUPPORTS & RESISTANCE LEVELS

I will venture into drawing the lines only based on the close for the week.

TRADING INSIGHTS & OBSERVATIONS

  1. After ending at the lowest point in almost a year on 15-6, Nifty opened with the typical unsettling gap-up of more than 130 points at 15832. This is what the bulls had been waiting for, but more importantly, this is what the FIIs had been waiting for to get to short at higher levels.
  2. And since the DIIs do not seem to have enough or more than enough buying power, the FIIs would have been delighted to see a Doji candle getting formed on the 5-minute chart at the open as Nifty failed to clear the opening resistance as well as high of 15863.
  3. Nifty had earlier recorded a high of 15886, and 15858, and on both these occasions, it had fallen from the resistance area. In fact, when it hit a high of 15858, it fell 199 points more to register a new swing low on 14-6. So that is what the FIIs would have hoped for to achieve.
  4. The global cues were good and the US Futures were well placed, but as the session progressed, the US Futures started drifting and then falling and so did our indices.
  5. From 0920h to 1530h, Nifty had no inner strength to do end in the green on 2 back-to-back positive candles of 5-minutes. Such was the level of weakness in nifty that it kept giving up key levels of 15800, 700, 600, 500, and finally 400!
  6. It appeared that there was no buying at all from the DIIs and while I am writing, the Buy-Sell data has not yet been updated, but I will not be surprised if even the DIIs have ended as the net sellers.
  7. The weekly expiry was today hijacked by the Call Writers as the Put Writers would have been knocked out on the way down. The India Vix was falling even as the indices were falling. However, in the latter part of the session, the Vix also shot up and ended the day just under 23.
  8. Nifty and Bank Nifty have registered their lowest lows for the calendar year 2022 and these are not good indicators. I am not sure if the fall is simply on account of the infection passed on by the US markets or on account of the domestic cues.
  9. There is little point in discussing who brought the indices down as it was a market-wide fall and the real problem was that most of the heavyweights have fallen from the day’s high and around the lows that they would have made in the earlier sessions.
  10. However, the range of the fall was so severe that the Nifty during the day fell from the high of 15863 to 15335 [528 points] and Bank Nifty fell from the high of 33756 to the low of 32537, a fall of 1218 points!
  11. The most significant point to note is that the Nifty has fallen from the high of 15863 to the low of 15335 in a day. However, it took Nifty 2 months to cover that distance on the way up between 24 May and the end of Jul 2021. If this is some indication, we have a long and treacherous path ahead.


Note: Posted purely for informational & educational purposes only.

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  • Divyam Gupta @Divyam Gupta
    Been tracking the elliot wave pattern on Nifty for some months now, with the last wave down starting from 18150 and the fib levels showing a potential bottom of 14,350-14750
    Like 1
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      Thank you for your inputs. Much appreciated.
      Like 0
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