India VIX Rises, Indices Fall, but Hold Key Levels

  • Stock Market Analysis

NIFTY 18642/6-12-22

  • The Open Price was -118 points than 5-12 which was a bearish start to the day.
  • Nifty made a low at 18577 which was a mild downward shift in the lower base and a bearish signal.
  • The Close Price was +42 points from the open price which is not a bearish sign.
  • The Close - High difference was -12 points as the day high was hit in the last half an hour.
  • Nifty made a lower high, a lower low, and a lower close.
  • The price action does not appear to be bullish.

BANK NIFTY 4338/6-12-22

  • The Open Price was -175 points than 5-12 which was a very bearish sign to start the day.
  • Bank Nifty initially registered an O=6 at 43091, but could not capitalize on the same and ended up rising but getting sold off as the day progressed.
  • The Close Price was +44 points from the open price and it is not a bearish sign.
  • The Close - High difference was -168 points which is a bearish sign.
  • Bank Nifty made a lower high, a higher low, and a lower close.
  • The overall sentiment is not clear.

Insights

  • Today was one of the most hectic days for India Vix and it once again ended in the green and is now above 14. It now appears that the technical support zone is getting well respected by Vix.
  • Nifty trading range was just 77 points for the day, but there were several ups and downs and within the ups, there were down moves. it was a very intense day that witnessed constant pressure on some of the key stocks.
  • The indices were suffocated and choked for a long time. Nifty was able to move up in the last half an hour but Bank Nifty was under intense selling pressure throughout the day and ended up below 43150.
  • Though the volatility was expected, what was surprising is the Time Value in At The Money Index Options. For Bank Nifty in the last hour, the Time Value was as high as 295 points! I have not seen or traded such a high premium and wondering what could be the reason for the same.
  • Nifty Futures was trading at a premium of 130 points and Bank Nifty premium which was 220 points a few sessions ago was today at 320+ points. Once again, I have not seen such high premium variances.
  • Rising premium with rising Vix is only helping the indices keep drifting.
  • Tomorrow’s key levels to watch - 18575 for Nifty and 43000 for Bank Nifty. A breach of these may cause panic.

Here is the link to the video:
https://youtu.be/ghiDImGsdJM

FII-DII data

FII -635 Crores

DII -559 Crores

Net -1194 Crores

Support
18300-18400 & 41800-42000

Resistance
Nifty 18700-750-800 Bank Nifty 43200-400-600

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  • Amit Pandit @Amit Pandit
    support resistance r given too bigger. not for nxt day or week. 43000 42900. 42780. Resistance now 43210. 43350. 43420. 43500
    Like 1
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      Thank you for the feedback. The recent ones are the swing highs and lows using intraday range. One never knows when the indices move big time and so the wider range.
      Like 0
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