Hattrick of Redness by Indices ahead of a Long Weekend

  • Stock Market Analysis
  • Editors Pick

In this post, I will talk about the analysis for the day yesterday. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices, as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely, play the next day. 

O 17890.55

H 17945.60

L 17688.50

C 17764.80

EOD --133.85 points / -0.75%

SGX Nifty 18-11-21 @ 1920h =  -13 points

FII DII =   Not yet available

CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart

Nifty opened flat despite weak global cues and then rallied a bit but then reality struck and the relentless selling pressure was on a little beyond noon when Nifty broke 17700 and took support around 17690.

The index then rallied more than 100+ points as FTSE was in red but not that much so Nifty also climbed to hit 17800+ but then expiry pressure put it well below 17800 and just above 17750 on an EOD basis.

The session was quite choppy with fast moves on either side with wider spreads - this may be due to the hat trick in the negative bias of the market and today was also the expiry.

On EOD as well as in the PM session, Bank Nifty showed better resilience than Nifty which indicates a good change.

Nifty made a lower high and a lower low.

NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS

Top 5 Lifters contributed = 21

Top 5 Draggers contributed =56

Net = -35

POSITIVES

HDFC Bank (NS: HDBK ), Reliance (NS: RELI ), and ICICI Bank (NS: ICBK ) ended in the green is a welcome change and may well help the indices restore the upward rhythm if all is well with the world tomorrow.

Bank Nifty is better placed than Nifty and it made a strong-hearted effort to sustain above the P Close.

NEGATIVES

Nifty unable to close above 17800 is a big negative. With this, Nifty is now 800+ points down from its ATH and the retest efforts would require greater momentum than before.

Bank Nifty also breached its last support at 37800 and made a dash towards 37700 but halted at 37745.

Nifty keeps making lower highs and lower lows.

FII-DII are net sellers.

TRADING RANGE FOR 22-26 November 2021 

Nifty Support 17600-700

Nifty resistance 17800 and at every 50 points thereafter.

Bank Nifty Support 37500-700

Bank Nifty Resistance 38000-38200-38500

INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS 

  • HDFC (NS: HDFC ) Bank seems to have found support at 200 DMA and in its zone as its Open and Low was almost the same and it stood firm on a very volatile expiry day.
  • Bank Nifty came to 37800 4 times and found support immediately except once when it momentarily breached and bounced back. So this may now act as good support as long as it is held on 22 Nov and if the index closes above 38000 on that day.
  • HDFC Bank and Reliance seem to have consumed all the supplies as they were more or less firm during the day. A lot depends on the duo if the markets have to resume their upward voyage.
  • Option premium especially in Nifty was more or less aligned with the spot during the PM session. Usually, the decay or the adjustment happens quite late trapping the option buyers. 

What do you feel about this?

Here is the video link --

https://youtu.be/LC8i1CfRzEM

NOTE --

This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. 

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  • SHANON McMAHON @SHANON McMAHON
    Not only me but the market follows your analysis too.
    Like 0
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      Thank you for your quite an interesting feedback 😊Like you, I am only a learner and doing my bit to share what I understand and in the process, improve my skills ☺️
      Like 1
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