Dow Jones Holds the Line, Semiconductors Shine, Nasdaq in Limbo: What Lies Ahead?

  • Stock Market Analysis

I didn't mention this yesterday, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average has managed to defend breakout support. While other indexes fluff their lines, there is still a buying opportunity for this index.

While the index has undercut its 50-day MA, one day's worth of gains would be enough to regain it. While yesterday's volume registered as accumulation, the 'hammer' candelstick, paired with the day before yesterday's, has the potential to be a tweezer bottom assuming a higher finish today.

INDU Daily Chart

The other index to watch is the Semiconductor Index . This index is an important bellwether for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 .

The Semiconductor Index did manage a strong rally, but that only brought it as far as former resistance, resistance that could stall this nascent recovery.

The CCI indicator has climbed out of an oversold state (although a technical 'buy' for this index is a cross above 100). Even if it manages to break through today, it will soon find itself challenging converged 20-day and 50-day MAs. 

SOX Daily Chart

If there is a warning sign, it's that Nasdaq breadth metrics are caught in no man's land and, therefore, vulnerable to further losses. This could be the start of a more protracted decline, at least until the percentage of Nasdaq stocks on point-n-figure 'buy' signals and above their 50-day and 200-day MAs reaches an oversold state. 

Optimists could argue it's someway from becoming overbought, but realistically, looking at a chart that has delivered a 13-year rally to see a decline that could go into 2024 after peaking in 2021 is not unreasonable, nor should it be seen as surprising. 

COMPQ Chart

As an investor, we are in the 'hold' part of the investment. Markets aren't overbought enough to consider profit-taking or covered call selling, but neither are they oversold enough to suggest buying would deliver good value. 

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