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Cotton Rises as USDA Cuts India’s 2024-25 Production Forecast to 30.72 Mn Bales

ByKedia Advisory
Published 27-09-2024, 10:55 am
CT
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Cotton candy prices settled up by 0.43% at 58,490, driven by concerns over reduced cotton production. The USDA has lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales due to crop damage from excessive rains and pest issues while ending stocks were also reduced to 12.38 million bales. Additionally, cotton acreage in the current kharif season is down by 9%, further supporting prices. However, the upside was limited as new raw cotton arrivals have started in Punjab mandis. Cotton exports for the 2023-24 season are estimated at 28 lakh bales, up from 15.5 lakh bales last year, driven by strong demand from Bangladesh and Vietnam.

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) estimated exports till August ends at 27 lakh bales, while imports rose to 16.4 lakh bales from 12.5 lakh bales a year ago. Closing stocks as of September 30, 2024, are projected at 23.32 lakh bales, down from 28.9 lakh bales last year. Globally, the U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 has been revised lower, with reduced production, exports, and ending stocks. The U.S. production forecast dropped by 600,000 bales to 14.5 million bales, largely due to lower yields in the Southwest. World cotton production was also reduced by 1.2 million bales, primarily in the U.S., India, and Pakistan. Global consumption and trade were also lowered, with reduced demand in Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Turkey.

Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with a 7% increase in open interest to 107 contracts. Cotton candy has support at 58,280, with a break below potentially testing 58,070. Resistance is likely at 58,650, and a move above this could push prices toward 58,810.

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