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Cotton Falls on Profit Booking Amidst Low Demand and Cautious Buying

ByKedia Advisory
Published 26-09-2024, 10:34 am
CT
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Cottoncandy settled down by -0.87% at 58,240 as profit booking took hold, amidst low demand and cautious buying from mills. The USDA recently lowered India's cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales, citing crop damage from excessive rains and pest issues, and reduced ending stocks to 12.38 million bales. Additionally, cotton acreage during the current kharif cropping season has declined by about 9% compared to last year, standing at 110.49 lakh hectares. Despite these factors, the downside is limited due to the arrival of raw cotton in Punjab mandis.

Cotton exports for the 2023-24 crop year are estimated at around 28 lakh bales, marking an 80% increase from the previous year, driven by higher demand from countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam. Imports, meanwhile, rose to 16.4 lakh bales from 12.5 lakh bales the prior year. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) estimates that closing stocks for 2024 are projected at 23.32 lakh bales, down from 28.9 lakh bales a year earlier, while consumption is expected to reach 317 lakh bales. In the U.S., the cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 reflects lower production, exports, and ending stocks due to reduced yields in key producing regions. Globally, cotton production is expected to decline, particularly in India, Pakistan, and the U.S., while world trade and consumption are also revised downward.

Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest remaining unchanged. Prices dropped by 510 rupees, with Cottoncandy now seeing support at 58,030, and a break below could test 57,820 levels. On the upside, resistance is expected at 58,430, with a move above potentially pushing prices to 58,620.

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