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Cotton Declines on Moderate Demand and Weak Exports to Bangladesh

ByKedia Advisory
Published 04-10-2024, 10:23 am
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Cotton candy prices declined by 0.43% to settle at 57,460 amid moderate demand and weak export activity, especially in Bangladesh. Despite this, the downside was limited due to hopes of demand recovery from China following stimulus measures and concerns about potential crop damage in key growing areas due to Hurricane Helene. The USDA has revised India’s cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales, lowering ending stocks to 12.38 million bales due to crop damage caused by excessive rains and pest issues. Additionally, cotton acreage has dropped by around 9% in the current Kharif season compared to last year.



India's cotton exports for the 2023-24 season are estimated to have risen by 80%, reaching 28 lakh bales due to increased demand from Bangladesh and Vietnam. In contrast, imports rose to 16.40 lakh bales from 12.50 lakh bales last year. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) estimates closing stocks at 23.32 lakh bales as of September 2024, down from 28.90 lakh bales last year, with consumption for the year estimated at 317 lakh bales. On the global front, the U.S. cotton production forecast for 2024/25 was lowered to 14.5 million bales, with reductions in exports and ending stocks. World cotton production was also revised down due to smaller crops in the U.S., India, and Pakistan, offset by a larger crop in China.



Technically, the market saw fresh selling as open interest rose by 1.72% to 118 contracts. Cotton candy is finding support at 57,420, and a break below could test 57,370. Resistance is seen at 57,510, with prices potentially testing 57,550 if the momentum continues upward.

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