COPPER MARKET OUTLOOK

LME Copper
 
- Price Movements: LME copper opened at $9,734.5/mt, with initial surges and fluctuations, closing at $9,733/mt, up 0.59%.
 
- Trading Data: Trading volume was 20,000 lots, with open interest reaching 275,000 lots.
 
- Macro (BCBA:BMAm) Influence: The U.S. election and volatility in associated stocks, especially Trump Media & Technology Group, affected copper markets. The U.S. dollar index dipped to a recent low, while rising crude oil prices provided upward momentum for copper.
 
SHFE Copper (Most-Traded 2412 Contract)
 
- Price Movements: The SHFE 2412 contract opened at 77,600 yuan/mt, hit a high of 78,170 yuan/mt, and closed at 77,840 yuan/mt, up 0.52%.
 
- Trading Data: Trading volume reached 39,000 lots, with open interest at 170,000 lots.
 
- Market Sentiment: An increase in imported copper supplies has reduced premiums, and high prices have dampened downstream purchasing interest. Both buyers and sellers are cautious due to uncertainty in the market outlook.
 
Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis
 
- Macroeconomic Impact: The U.S. core PCE index saw growth in September, influencing expectations for interest rate cuts. While markets anticipate a possible rate cut by year-end, expectations for a substantial 50-basis-point cut have softened.
 
- Fundamental Pressure: Domestic destocking of electrolytic copper has slowed since October, indicating decreased demand following the traditional peak season. This has constrained downstream consumption and created a wait-and-see sentiment among buyers.
 
Technical Analysis
 
- Support and Resistance Levels:
 
  - SHFE Copper: Key support is around 77,030 yuan/mt, with resistance near 78,050 yuan/mt.
 
  - Short-Term Outlook: With increased copper imports and high prices dampening purchasing enthusiasm, copper prices could face pressure in the short term. Additionally, market participants are cautious amid ongoing U.S. Fed meetings and potential shifts in interest rate policy.
 
Outlook
 
Overall, copper prices may experience further volatility due to external macro factors, including the U.S. election and potential policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve.
 
Copper’s immediate performance will depend on continued economic indicators, inventory trends, and downstream demand stability.