Bulls vs Bears: Nifty & Bank Nifty Analysis Including Important Levels

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Nifty 50 EOD ANALYSIS 18-6-21

●   Open: 15756.5

●   High: 15761.5

●   Low: 15450.9

●   Close: 15683.35

●   Trading Range Low to High: 310.6 points

●   Max Available Opportunity: 310.6 points [Trading range for 17-6-21 was 152.6]

●   Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 155.3 points

●   Days to Expiry: 06 days

●   Basis: Though the LTP of Future reads 15727, if we work out the closing price in line with the spot, there is no basis.

●   Reading Based on Basis: Neutral - sideways till 15750

●   India VIX: 14.8 / -3.2%

Nifty

Top 3 Gainers

●    Adani Ports (NS: APSE )  - The scrip seems to have taken support from the base formed around the low made for the day - 630-650. And then, it attempted to fill the gap on the way up but could not manage to cross 700 on a closing basis. The price spike indicates a likely short-covering.

●    BAJAJ AUTO [BAJA] - This also has taken support from the close price of 17-6-21 and jumped sharply when Auto scrips were under pressure for the most part of the day. The

spike in price has made good the decline in prices over the last 5 trading sessions which is heartening.

●    Hindustan Unilever (NS: HLL ) [HLL] - The scrip has performed well during the week and has managed to clear a set of resistances around 2400-2425 and it may well be able to breach the 2500 mark if it is able to sustain the selling pressure as the scrip fell almost 200 points from around 2500.

Top 3 Losers

●    ONGC (NS: ONGC ) - After creating different forms of candles during the last few sessions, the scrip made a big downward move but it may just find support at the closing price level where there is a Change In Polarity support line.

●    Coal India (NS: COAL ) - It fell with a bang right into the base from where it had managed to find support a few days ago. If it is not able to withstand the selling pressure, it may decide to rest only at 50 DMA around 140-142.

●    JSE Steel [JSTL] - It decided to chart its own course and has broken 50 DMA. So if it does not manage to close above the line on 21-6-21m then some interesting price action may be in store.

Positives

The single most critical positive for Nifty is the smart recovery that it has made. Nifty shot up

230+ points to close at 15681.35. Banknifty has also made a smart and sharp recovery of 650+ points which is a good relief for Nifty as now both the indices may have been rejuvenated after falling sharply and feeling light and ready for the next week.

Negatives

Despite the sharp recoveries in the indices, both of them have failed to close above the Thursday close which possibly means that the selling pressure is not yet over and there may be something in store. On account of the overall market sentiment, even TCS (NS: TCS ) and Infy came under pressure and both gave up the psycho levels of 3300 and 1500 respectively on a closing basis.

Concluding remarks

As mentioned in my note related to EOD analysis for 17-6-21, the indices had a downside inclination and that was fulfilled by them today. The recovery from the lows to the closing prices was impressive. For this, one needs to look at the 5-minute chart which shows consistent Higher Highs and Higher Lows getting formed. Here is the 5-minute chart --

Nifty 50
I had also mentioned in the same note that whenever the Nifty is moving down, it is attracting buyers and that is what seems to have happened today as well. HUL, Reliance (NS: RELI ), HDFC (NS: HDFC ) twins and Infy closing in green is a good sign. HUL of course was one of the star performers.

We now head into the Expiry week for the June series with Banknifty and Nifty candles forming a hammer, the next week is likely to be interesting. 15600 would be the key area for Nifty to move back up from and 15800-825 are the key resistance levels we may either see moves closer to 16000 or a likely retest of the lower levels. With India VIX closing below 15 on a weekly basis, we may not see great volatility. Although, the final moves are best left for the market to decide and we just need to react to what it offers.

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  • Bhanu Kiran @Bhanu Kiran
    Nifty future support 15300 and resistance 16050 for the month of june
    Like 0
  • NISHANT SHAH @NISHANT SHAH
    daily close below 15589 will lead to 15223...15172...15084...14920  upper band capped at 15820 for revival of fresh bull trend
    Like 3
  • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
    Appreciate your perspectives. As it's said bull market corrections are fast and furious. For now, that is what seems to be happening.
    Like 3
  • Asish Dutta @Asish Dutta
    nifty very crucial level 15000 if break down then it comes 13000 or if nifty support 15000 then it goes to 16500.
    Like 1
    • Kanwal Malhotra @Kanwal Malhotra
      Market is in big bull run. We are observing deep corrections which are mostly stock speciffic.All sectors are in perfect shape.Nifty level in18 to 24 months is likely to touch 21,000.
      Like 4
    • Param Bishnoi @Param Bishnoi
      Still just retraced 50% banknifty or u are dreaming for 13k 😂😜
      Like 0
    • Pruthvi Thakkar @Pruthvi Thakkar
      This much ups & down is not possible but surely if it resist it will move above 16000 but going to 13k is not possible im strong market run with good sentiments
      Like 1
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