Aluminium May Trade Between 139.7-147.5 Levels

Published 13-08-2018, 06:35 pm
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Technically Aluminium market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 4.52% to settled at 3292.

Now MCX Aluminium is getting support at 141.7 and below same could see a test of 139.7 levels and resistance is now likely to be seen at 145.6, a move above could see prices testing 147.5.

Aluminium on MCX settled up 0.91% at 143.75 boosted by upcoming supply cuts expected in China over the winter months. On-warrant stocks of aluminium in LME-registered warehouses have fallen to 831,675 tonnes, the lowest since 2007.

Decreases in primary aluminium inventories across China continued to decelerate this week as a low season of consumption sustained. The stocks across eight consumption areas in the country, including SHFE warrants, shrank some 6,000 mt from last Thursday August 2 to stand at 1.775 million mt as of August 9, data showed.

This compared to a week-on-week drop of 14,000 mt seen on August 2 and a week-on-week drop of 28,000 mt recorded on July 26. Chinese output of primary aluminium increased 0.2% on a yearly basis to 3.13 million mt in July. This marked the first year-on-year growth in 2018. In the first seven months of the year, output fell 2.2% from a year ago and stood at 20.94 million mt.

As of the end of July, the annualised operating capacity stood at 37.5 million mt, idled capacity registered at 4.4 million mt, and operating rates stood at 89.5%. Operating capacity in July fell 200,000 mt from June as some high-cost capacity across Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi and Gansu provinces shut or was replaced, and as new capacity in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi province was commissioned slowly.

Trading Ideas:
--Aluminium trading range for the day is 139.7-147.5.
--Aluminium dropped on profit booking as the impact of strikes at Alcoa’s alumina refinery in Western Australia was smaller than expected.
--Alcoa workers in Western Australia have walked out indefinitely over an enterprise agreement dispute with the aluminium maker, the Australian Workers’ Union said.
--The Alcoa (NYSE:AA) plants account for around 9.3 million tonnes of capacity or some 8 percent of the world’s supply of alumina.

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