After Many Twists & Turns, Indices End in an Indecisive Mode

NIFTY 16985/+0.08%/16-3-23 

• The Open Price was -172 points compared to the 15-3 Open price which was a bearish start to the day. 
• Nifty made a low at 16850 which was a significant downward shift in the lower base and a bearish sign. 
• The Close Price was -9 points from the open price which indicates indecisiveness. 
• The Close - High difference was -77 points which is also a bearish sign. 
• Nifty made a lower high, a lower low, and a higher close.   
• The price action continues to be bearish.

BANK NIFTY 39132/+0.21%/16-3-23

• The Open Price was -716 points compared to the 14-3 Open price which was an extremely bearish start to the day. 
• Bank Nifty made a low at 38613 which is a  very sharp downward shift to the lower base and a very bearish sign.  
• The Close Price was +71 points from the open price which is a mildly bullish sign. 
• The Close - High difference was -249 points which is a bearish sign.  
• Bank Nifty made a lower high, a lower low, and a higher close.
• The price action is bearish.

Insights

• India Vix ended at 16.22/-0.49%. 
• The indices opened in an uneventful manner and then as if someone had spooked in their ears, they simply started running down the stairs. Bank Nifty in particular was in a tearing hurry and was falling as if it was made of sand. 
• Nifty was also not far behind in doing the theatrics on the weekly expiry day AM session. The moves were fast, with wide spreads, and going all over the place. 
• To me, it appeared that if someone had put an order with a Stop Loss and a Target, the price action may have hit either side in a minute or two. It was hard to catch the fast train of price action. 
• After the sharp down move, when Nifty hit 16850, all of a sudden the tides turned and Nifty went above 17000 within the next several minutes. The move was one-sided and the same goes for Bank Nifty as it went past 39200. And just when the bulls may have heaved a sigh of relief, the indices tumbled again.
• Finally, the previous close acted as a good resistance for the indices and somehow, the prices kept getting attracted to those levels in the indices and that is how the indices managed to end in an indecisive manner even though in the green. 
• None of the heavyweights could make any significant contribution on either side and that is why the indecisiveness as well. 
• The FII-DII net numbers seem to suggest that the downside may not be much from here if the global cues do not trigger another sell-off.

FII-DII data 

FII  -282 Crores

DII +2051 Crores

Net +1769 Crores

Support
16800-900 & 38200-400-600

Resistance
The indices have been beaten down heavily and today I saw that the prices were finding it hard to stay firm even for 2-3 minutes on the upside so no point in stating the resistances until Nifty restores 17200 on a closing basis. Similar is the case with Bank Nifty - only when a close above 40000 happens, there is some point in drawing these lines.