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NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 3-3-22

In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.

O 16723.20

H 16768.95

L 16442.95

C 16498.05

EOD -107.90 points / -0.65%

SGX Nifty 3-3-22 @ 1815h = +24

FII DII Net Buy/Sell = -1,845 Crores

CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart

Nifty opened with a gap-up of 100+ points and then faced intraday resistance below 16775 and then fell 100+ points.

It then consolidated in a narrow range for about 2 hours a few minutes past noon & then fell 150+ points to register a low just below 16500.

Then there were minor recovery attempts but these failed around 16575 and then the index fell another 100+ points as the expiry neared.

However, a dramatic 5-minute candle of 90 points helped Nifty to end just below 16500.

In the process, Nifty has made a lower low, but a higher high.

NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS

Top 5 Lifters contributed = 29

Top 5 Draggers contributed = 62

Net = -33

BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS

Top 3 Lifters contributed = 07

Top 3 Draggers contributed = 214

Net = -207

POSITIVES

Infosys (NS: INFY ) was the only heavyweight that ended in the green. It was good that HDFC Bank (NS: HDBK ) & TCS (NS: TCS ) did not fall much.

NEGATIVES

ICICI Bank (NS: ICBK ) ended below 700. Axis Bank (NS: AXBK ), State Bank Of India (NS: SBI ), and Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd (NS: KTKM ) also came under pressure.

Reliance (NS: RELI ) expectedly ended in the red.

FIIs have sold in excess of 6,000 crores.

Nifty ended below the crucial psycho mark of 16500.

Bank Nifty ended below the crucial psycho mark of 35000.

TRADING RANGE FOR 4 Mar 22

Nifty Support 16300-400

Nifty Resistance 16500-600-700

Bank Nifty Support 34200-500

Bank Nifty Resistance 35000-200-400-600

INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS – many of these have been written as the day progressed

  • The global cues were mixed, were strong buying by the DIIs meant the indices were likely to gap up and also on account of the fact that the US Futures were significantly high before our sleep hours. And then, the FIIs got the aid of sliding US futures & mixed global cues and the gap-up was sold into which has become the norm sort of.
  • Today Reliance is likely to take a breather after 2 days of good upward movements. This would also mean that unless the banks support, Nifty is likely to drift yet again and today being the weekly expiry, anything is a possibility.
  • A few days/weeks ago, it used to be a case where HDFC (NS: HDFC ) was the shorters’ stock and if one had shorted at a mere rise of 5 points also, it used to give good gains and now, it seems to be the case with ICICI Bank and Kotak Bank. These two are finding it hard to stay at higher levels and seem to have become shorters’ favorites.
  • Nifty was range-bound for a long time after 1000 has today, it was the day of Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, and State Bank Of India to keep moving up and down in a narrow range letting the Option prices melt gradually with a declining India VIX . The fact that Reliance was also slow-moving aided the melting process.
  • Bank Nifty made the typical expiry day move between 1510-1515h to create a new lot for the day and then shot up 406 points to save the day. This sharp spike would have created trouble for many traders and may have relieved the stress of many traders. It is worth watching on the 5-minute chart.
  • Although there is a war ongoing between Russia & Ukraine, the market is witnessing a different kind of battle and this may continue as the State election results would be out only on 10-3 so the pressure is likely to be on.
  • I would not be surprised if now DIIs also start banking gains and switch to a sell mode as now they do not have to worry about supporting the LIC IPO. And then before the financial year ends, they start buying again.

What do you feel about this?

Here is the link to the video:
https://youtu.be/JaDVU_ChU0U

The post is for educational & informational purposes only.

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  • Mithun Rai @Mithun Rai
    ‌‌ನಿಕ್ ಮಲ್೯
    Like 0
  • Mithun Rai @Mithun Rai
    ‌‌ನಿಕ್ ಮಲ್೯
    Like 0
  • Mandar Patil @Mandar Patil
    Good Analysis
    Like 0
  • Mandar Patil @Mandar Patil
    Good Analysis
    Like 0
    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      Thank you
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  • Behari Dabrai @Behari Dabrai
    Nice insight
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    • Umesh Rindani @Umesh Rindani
      Thank you for the feedback
      Like 0
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